Preview of RBNZ: On Autopilot?.The RBNZ will likely note the economy was stronger than expected in late 2024 and that the recent data flow suggest growth has continued. This assessment will give the impression that another cut at the May Monetary Policy Statement is more likely than not but that cuts after May are more speculative than indicated at the February Monetary Policy Statement.

BoJ's Ueda: US tariffs likely to push up US inflation.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that  US tariffs are likely to push up US inflation in the near term but could weigh on US prices longer-term by slowing down US economic growth. 

Dollar steady as zero hour on "Liberation Day" closes in.The dollar firmed a touch and other currencies held tight ranges on Wednesday as traders anxiously awaited details of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans later in the day that could set the tone for markets in the near term.

Indian rupee to react to US tariffs, bond yields seen inching lower.The Indian rupee will react to the announcement of reciprocal tariffs from the United States this week, with investors looking to gauge how the levies may impact global trade and growth prospects, while government bond yields are expected to decline.

Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Forecasts: Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs in Focus.USD/JPY and AUD/USD trends influenced by Trump's tariff actions, U.S. jobs data, and central bank outlooks. Market sentiment and inflation data in focus.

Mexico gov't sees economy growing at least 1.5% in 2025, draft budget shows.Mexico's government sees its economy growing between 1.5% and 2.3% this year, down from a prior estimate of 2.0% to 3.0%, a draft budget from the country's finance ministry showed on Tuesday.

Australia Building Permits (YoY): 25.7% (February) vs 21.7%.Australia Building Permits (YoY): 25.7% (February) vs 21.7%

Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-1.4%) in February.Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-1.4%) in February

US stock futures held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited the implementation of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal and other tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly assured lawmakers that the new tariffs would act as a “cap,” allowing countries to take measures to reduce them. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.38% and 0.87%, respectively, while the Dow edged down 0.03%. Nine of the 11 S&P sectors advanced, led by consumer discretionary, technology, and communication services. Notable gainers included Tesla (+3.6%), Nvidia (+1.6%), and MicroStrategy (+6.2%). Newsmax also skyrocketed over 2,000% from its IPO price of $10 in just two days. Meanwhile, economic data signaled ongoing weakness in the factory sector, which contracted again in March, with price pressures at their highest since 2022. Job openings fell to 7.57 million, missing expectations.

RBA's Kent says will raise new OMO repo rate by 5bp to 10bp above cash rate target.Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent late Tuesday outlined some changes to repo rates but stated that the changes have no implications for the stance of the bank's monetary policy. 

Japan Monetary Base (YoY) fell from previous -1.8% to -3.1% in March.Japan Monetary Base (YoY) fell from previous -1.8% to -3.1% in March

Argentina Tax Revenue (MoM) fell from previous 13520.837B to 12733B in February.Argentina Tax Revenue (MoM) fell from previous 13520.837B to 12733B in February

South Korea’s inflation rate edged up to 2.1% in March 2025 from 2.0% in February, surpassing expectations. This comes as the Bank of Korea has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in the current easing cycle, bringing its policy rate to a two-year low of 2.75%. The central bank revised its growth forecast lower due to the impact of US tariffs and domestic political turmoil. Meanwhile, policymakers maintained their inflation forecast at 1.9% for both 2025 and 2026, while projecting core inflation at 1.8%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% in March, slowing from February’s 0.3% increase, in line with forecasts.

Milk decreased to a 48-week low of 17.11 USD/CWT. Over the past 4 weeks, Milk lost 7.72%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 14.27%.

New Zealand's stocks fell 22 points, or 0.2%, to 12,290 in morning deals on Wednesday after closing in the green in the previous session, as traders were cautious ahead of US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement later today. The NZX 50 tracked a decline in Wall Street's Dow Jones as investors awaited the "Liberation Day" announcement amid a weak report on jobs data and manufacturing. Tuesday's data from New Zealand's top trading partner, China, capped the fall, as the manufacturing sector on the mainland expanded the most in four months, following official data that showed factory activity rose at the fastest pace in a year. On the data front, building permits in New Zealand grew 0.7% in February, easing from a 2.6% gain in January. The tech sector, industrials, and healthcare weighed on the index, with notable losses from Fletcher Building (-1.2%), Colonial Motor (-1.0%), Fisher & Paykel (-0.9%), Auckland International Airport (-0.9%), and Hallenstein Glasson (-0.8%).

South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in March.South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (2%) in March

South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in March.South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in March

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds after hammer, eyes on 200-day SMA breakout.The GBP/JPY begins Wednesday's Asian session on a positive note, after posting losses of 0.22% on Tuesday, as investors grew risk-averse due to US trade policies. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 193.64, below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which registers gains of 0.21%.

The Ai Group Industry Index for the Australian manufacturing sector dropped by 17.8 points to -29.7 in March, signaling continued contraction. Some manufacturers reported losing customers due to the slowing economy, while US tariffs and a weak AUD are affecting the supply of raw materials. Upstream manufacturing showed slight easing in March. The chemicals index fell by 5.8 points to -3.4, while the contraction in the minerals and metals sector worsened, declining by 9.5 points to -42.3. Chemical manufacturers cited slower sales demand, partly due to natural disasters and global economic uncertainty, while most minerals and metals manufacturers reported a decline in activity, impacted by cost pressures, weaker cash flow, and US tariff concerns.

The Ai Group Australian Industry Index decreased by 3.1 points to -22.2 seasonally adjusted in March, continuing a trend of contraction for the thirty-third consecutive month. Industrial markets are being affected by uncertainty factors, including US trade policies, forex volatility, and the Australian federal election. Although cost pressures have eased, the sales price indicator has dropped to neutral, signaling ongoing strain on industrial margins. Demand remains weak, with both new orders and activity indicators impacted by these uncertainties. The activity/sales indicator further contracted in March, falling by 7.7 points to -31.5, suggesting a continued decline in industrial activity through the first quarter of 2025. Employment conditions showed some improvement, with a rise of 5.8 points to -7.3, indicating a modest recovery since late 2024.

USD/JPY Holds Its Ground Ahead of Trump's Liberation Day.Volatility is receding as we approach Trump's Liberation Day, which really could go one of two ways in terms of direction and volatility. While the 1-day implied volatility level is higher on USD/CAD, it is worth noting that historical volatility has been higher on USD/JPY with an average daily range of 131 pips, with Asia offering an average of 83 pips, Europe 107 pips and US 97 pips.

New Zealand data - February Building permits +0.7% m/m (prior +2.6%).The New Zealand dollar is barely moved on the data - the impacts on the currency are mainly coming from Trump tariff developments. We get the next lot of tariffs at 4pm US Eastern time on Wednesday, April 2, 2025.

The number of building consents issued for new dwellings in New Zealand rose by 0.7% month-on-month, reaching a seasonally adjusted total of 2,791 units in February 2025. Over the year to February 2025, the total number of new dwellings consented was 33,595, marking a 7.4% decline from the previous year. The annual value of non-residential building work consented stood at $8.8 billion, a decrease of 11% compared to the year ending February 2024. For the year to February 2025, the number of new dwellings consented per 1,000 residents was 6.3, down from 6.9 in the previous year.

Soybean futures rose above $10.3 a bushel on Tuesday as traders reacted to market developments. The price movement reflected the influence of U.S. crop data and ongoing trade policy concerns. Traders closely monitored potential U.S. tariffs and the risk of retaliatory measures, which could impact soybean exports. Weather conditions in key growing regions also played a role in shaping market sentiment. While soybeans experienced modest gains, uncertainty surrounding trade and agricultural forecasts continued to drive cautious trading. Analysts noted that broader market trends and policy decisions would be crucial in determining future price direction.

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair holds below 94.00 as bearish bias lingers despite mild recovery.The AUD/JPY pair is showing mild intraday movement during Tuesday's session, trading just under the 94.00 mark ahead of the Asian opening. Despite a slight daily gain, the broader setup remains bearish, as price continues to hover in the lower half of the recent range between 93.15 and 94.01.

US crude oil inventories surged by 6.037 million barrels for the week ending March 28, 2025, reversing the 4.6 million-barrel draw from the previous week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute. This increase marked the fifth inventory build in the last eight weeks.

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Hits $72.32, Signals Potential Pullback Ahead.Crude oil hit $72.32 but faced resistance, forming a bearish reversal pattern. A pullback is likely if prices drop below $71.34, with support at $70.64.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Declines Toward Key Support at 50-Day MA.Natural gas dropped below key levels, approaching support at $3.88. A bullish reversal remains possible, but a breakdown below the 50-Day MA could trigger further downside.

Oil - private survey of inventory shows a headline large crude oil build vs. draw expected.more to come Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.1mn barrels Distillates -1.0 mn bbls Gasoline -1.7 mn --- This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Uruguay posted a current account deficit of USD 383 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, shrinking from a USD 540 million gap in the same period last year, mostly due to an increase in the goods balance. The goods and services surplus expanded to USD 727 million from USD 639 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, the primary income deficit shrank slightly to USD 1,159 million from USD 1,228 million, and the secondary income surplus remained at USD 49 million.