Switzerland's trade surplus narrowed to CHF 3.9 billion in August 2025 from CHF 4.2 billion in July, the lowest in three months. Exports slipped 1.0% month-on-month to CHF 22.0 billion, weighed down by lower sales of watches (-8.6%) and jewelry (-7.5%). Exports to the US plunged 22.1% (-CHF 873 million), its weakest level since late 2020, as the impact of Washington’s 39% tariff on Swiss goods—one of the highest globally—continued to curb demand. By contrast, exports to Europe rose 1.6%, boosted by Austria (+43.2%), Poland (+37.2%), and France (+23.9%). Meanwhile, imports rose 0.4% to CHF 18.1 billion, supported by higher purchases of energy (+11.6%), vehicles (+2.7%), and chemical-pharmaceutical products (+0.5%). Among suppliers, Austria (+13.9%) and Slovenia (+23.7%) recorded notable increases, while Germany posted a sharp decline of 6.8%, its steepest since December 2020.

European equity markets were poised to open higher on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point rate cut and signaled two more reductions this year. However, the Fed projected only one cut in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three next year. In Europe, the Bank of England will announce its policy decision later today, with rates widely expected to be held at 4% as UK inflation has continued to edge higher in recent months. In premarket trade, Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.3% while Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.2%.

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.8% to close at 13,120 on Thursday, its lowest in two weeks, after data showed the economy shrank more than expected. Gross domestic product fell 0.9% in the June quarter, more than market forecasts of a 0.3% decline, following a revised 0.9% rise in the previous period, dragged mainly by weakness in manufacturing, construction, and exports. The economy has been further hurt since the US imposed tariffs on New Zealand goods, which raised concerns about external demand and trade competitiveness. Externally, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected on Wednesday and signaled a measured approach to further monetary policy easing. On the corporate front, heavyweights Meridian Energy (-1.05%), Auckland Intl Airport (-1.0%), Infratil (-3.1%), Mercury NZ (-1.8%), and a2 Milk (-2.6%) posted significant declines. Other major losers included Ryman (-2.0%), Kiwi Property (-2.8%), Channel Infrastructure (-2.0%), and Vista Group (-1.6%).

Dollar Finds Relief from Fed, Kiwi Crashes on GDP, BoE Next.Volatility surged overnight as markets digested the Fed's 25bps cut and updated projections. The Dollar initially sank on confirmation of two more cuts this year, only to rebound sharply as traders judged the overall stance less dovish than expected.

Australia 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to 4.19%, the lowest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Australia 10Y Bond Yield lost 13.50 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 25.80 basis points.

Market expecting more easing after surprise Indonesia central bank cut.Several economists said on Thursday that they expected more aggressive easing by Indonesia's central bank after this week's surprise rate cut, with many noting the governor's determination to boost growth in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.

Rupee dips below 88/USD as investors get mixed signals from Fed cut.The Indian rupee slipped on Wednesday, pressured by a firmer dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve's widely expected 25 basis points cut left investors parsing mixed signals from its projections and commentary.

China is halting its antitrust investigation into Google, according to the Financial Times on Thursday, as trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington heat up over tech giants like TikTok and Nvidia. The State Administration for Market Regulation has reportedly decided to wind down the probe, signaling a formal closure. The move comes amid escalating tensions between the two countries and may reflect a strategic shift in China’s regulatory posture during sensitive trade talks.

Australia jobs disappoint in August as employment falls -5.4k.Australia's labor market weakened in August as total employment fell by -5.4k, against expectations for a 21.2k gain. The headline masked stark contrasts, with full-time jobs dropping by -40.9k while part-time roles increased by 35.5k.

The BSE Sensex rose 298 points, or 0.4%, to 82,992 in morning trade on Thursday, marking its third consecutive gain and reaching its highest level since July 10. The upturn was buoyed by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and signals of an additional 50 basis points in cuts before year-end, fueling rising hopes of increased foreign inflows.Optimism over US-India trade talks and anticipation surrounding GST reforms taking effect on September 22 also supported market sentiment. The Nifty 50 climbed 0.3%, trading above 25,400, while small-cap and mid-cap stocks advanced 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Almost all sectors traded in the green, led by technology, which rose 1.0%. Among the early gainers were Infosys (+1.3%), HCL Technologies (+1.2%), Hindustan Unilever (+1.2%), HDFC Bank (+1.1%), and Sun Pharmaceutical (+0.9%).

NZ economy shrinks -0.9%, Kiwi dives on bets of 50bps RBNZ cut next.New Zealand's economy contracted far more than expected in Q2, with GDP falling -0.9% qoq against consensus forecasts of -0.3% qoq. The release confirmed a deeper downturn, with economic activity now having declined in three of the last five quarters.

Belgium’s construction output rose by 1.3% year-on-year in July 2025, compared with a downwardly revised 1% increase in the previous month. The expansion was driven by a rebound in specialized construction activities (0.9% vs -2.7% in June). Meanwhile, production declined for building construction (-2% vs 0.8%) and civil engineering works (-3.1% vs 0.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, construction activity grew by 2.2% in July after a 0.5% rise in June.

BOJ may raise rates in October even if Takaichi wins leadership race, says ex-c.bank official.The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates in October even if Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of aggressive monetary easing, wins the ruling party's leadership race and becomes the next premier, former central bank executive Tomoyuki Shimoda said on Thursday.

The Netherlands' seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in August 2025, after holding steady at 3.8% for four consecutive months. This also marked the highest reading since March, as the number of unemployed individuals climbed by 13 thousand from a month earlier to 401 thousand, while employment fell by 1 thousand to 9.839 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged up to 76.3% in August from 76.2% in the prior month. During the period, the number of unemployment benefits decreased by 0.2 thousand to 187.4 thousand. Compared to a year earlier, the jobless rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than the 3.7% recorded in August 2024.

EUROPE There are Fed weeks where decades happen.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter:

The Indonesian rupiah weakened around 16,500 per dollar on Thursday after the central bank unexpectedly slashed its key rates by 25bps to 4.75%. It was the sixth reduction since September 2024, lowering borrowing costs by a total of 150bps to the lowest level since late 2022. Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo said Wednesday the board will continue to assess the scope for more cuts while balancing currency stability and economic growth. The rupiah has fallen about 2% against the US dollar this year, weighed by concerns over domestic finances, two weeks of protests since late August, and last week’s sudden dismissal of finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Questions also remain over the central bank’s independence following a “burden sharing” program to help fund government spending. Globally, the dollar index held above 97, extending a rebound after the Federal Reserve’s widely expected 25bps cut, with policymakers flagging two more reductions this year but just one in 2026.

NZ: Change of OCR call – RBNZ to cut 50bp in October.We now think the RBNZ will cut 50bp in October and 25bp in November (previously we expected 25bp cuts at both of those meetings). This change follows weaker than expected GDP growth in Q2.

First Impressions: NZ GDP, June Quarter 2025 – Even Weaker than Expected.New Zealand's GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, substantially worse than expected. The surprises were narrowly concentrated in areas that are unlikely to respond to further interest rate cuts.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPY.The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to keep its policy rate at 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, 2025. The future economic outlook remains cautious because of political uncertainty within Japan and challenges from international trade.

Vietnam 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 3.70%, the highest since March 2023. Over the past 4 weeks, Vietnam 10Y Bond Yield gained 13.40 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 88.80 basis points.

September FOMC: A “Risk Management” Cut.The September FOMC meeting did not disappoint. As was widely expected, the FOMC lowered the fed funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25%.

Silver slipped below $41.5 per ounce on Thursday, falling for a third consecutive session after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut but struck a more cautious stance on further easing than markets anticipated. The Fed signaled two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three cuts next year. Chair Jerome Powell described the move as “risk management” in response to labor market weakness, while emphasizing there is no urgency to accelerate cuts. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada also lowered its policy rate by 25 bps, while the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to keep policy steady this week. Still, robust industrial demand from solar, electric vehicles and electronics, alongside supply constraints, continues to provide underlying support for silver.

Fed Review: Slim Margins.The FOMC's decision to cut rates by 25bp was backed by a stronger consensus than some perhaps feared. Aside from Stephen Miran (who dissented for a 50bp cut), all voters supported the 25bp move.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY 487 billion (USD 68.56 billion) in seven-day reverse repos through open market operations on September 18, at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous period. With CNY 292 billion in seven-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, the central bank achieved a net injection of CNY 195 billion, continuing its efforts to inject liquidity into the banking system.The move came just hours after the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The seven-day reverse repo rate now serves as the economy's main policy rate. The PBOC last lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points in May.

Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,450 per tonne after slight gains in the prior session, weighed by further losses in rival oils on the Chicago market following a U.S. biofuels proposal that disappointed traders. Sentiment was also cautious amid a shortened trading week and ahead of Malaysia’s August trade data, due in the coming days. Meantime, last week's industry figures showed end-August stocks rose 4.2% from July to 2.2 million tonnes. Capping further declines, demand from India, the top buyer, is expected to stay strong. The country’s palm oil imports surged 15.8% in August to 990,528 tonnes, the highest in over a year, as attractive pricing against soyoil prompted refiners to stock up ahead of the mid-October festive season. Meanwhile, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India expects purchases to stay above 800,000 tonnes this month. Export estimates were mixed so far, with Intertek reporting shipments up 2.6% for Sept 1–15, while AmSpec said they edged down 0.1%.

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: NZ, Australian data shift AUD and NZD.New Zealand GDP fell 0.9% in Q2, adding pressure on the RBNZ to accelerate cuts, while Australia's labour data, steady HK and China policy decisions, and US crypto ETF news rounded out the session. Markets saw modest FX moves on the data flow.

Rupee rally to pause on retreat in Asian peers after mixed Fed signals.The Indian rupee's recent recovery may run out of steam on Thursday on the back of a decline in Asian peers after the Federal Reserve delivered a muddled message.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield steadied at 4.21% as traders assessed the labour market report. Employment fell by 5,400 in August, following a revised 26,500 rise in July and defying forecasts of a 22,000 gain. The jobless rate, however, stayed at 4.1%, matching expectations and still low by historical standards. The mixed data did little to alter expectations for monetary policy as markets upheld bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave rates unchanged this month, while pricing a 70% chance of a November cut. The RBA has so far adopted a cautious approach to policy easing, delivering only three cuts this year—guided mainly by quarterly inflation data. On Tuesday, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the bank was close to achieving both of its inflation and employment goals, though risks remain on both sides of the outlook. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve lowered rates as expected on Wednesday and indicated a steady pace of further cuts for the rest of this year.

The IDX Composite rose 18 points, or 0.2%, to 8,043 in morning trade on Thursday, gaining for the seventh consecutive session and hitting a record high. The upturn was supported by a 25 bps interest rate cut by Bank Indonesia on Wednesday—the sixth rate cut since September last year. Sentiment was further boosted by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps, along with signals of an additional 50 bps in cuts before year-end. A newly announced economic stimulus package worth IDR 16.23 trillion (USD 989.3 million) for Q4 2025 and into next year, aimed at boosting economic growth, also contributed to positive market sentiment. However, gains were capped by a mixed session on Wall Street overnight, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closing in the red. The tech, manufacturing, and utilities sectors led the advance. Among the top performers were Elang Mahkota (+4.9%), Bank Mayapada (3.3%), XL Axiata (+1.5%), Jasa Marga (+1.1%), and BRI (+0.7%).

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.6% on Thursday, rebounding from the prior session’s decline as the Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged while officials weigh the impact of US tariffs on the export-driven economy. Still, analysts suggested the BOJ could raise rates by 25 basis points in October amid signs of resilience. Politically, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader on October 4 to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Japanese yields also tracked US Treasuries higher after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut on Wednesday, while projecting two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three cuts next year.