First Light News – Week Ahead: Middle East Conflict Remains in Focus; US Inflation Likely to Attract Attention.Last week was undoubtedly the kind of week that turns a one-cup coffee morning into a four-cup affair.

All Eyes Remain on the Conflict in the Middle East.Unexpected weak US payrolls on Friday brought a temporary interruption from the war-related, inflationary narrative. Contrary to mostly solid US data of late (e.g.

Austria Trade Balance dipped from previous €-352M to €-1301M in December.Austria Trade Balance dipped from previous €-352M to €-1301M in December

US: Double inflation data test for Fed – Deutsche Bank.US: Double inflation data test for Fed – Deutsche Bank

Oil Surges as Iran Conflict Deepens.All focus this morning is on the escalating situation in the Middle East and the impact on energy prices. It is a fluid situation, and investors will monitor the news flow communication as well as any revised policy signals from central banks.

Crude Oil Hits $120pb.It's happening. US crude just hit $120 per barrel at the open before retreating to around $107 by the time I came to my desk, while Brent crude peaked at $113 per barrel before retreating as well.

Oil: Price spike extends with war risk – Danske Bank.Oil: Price spike extends with war risk – Danske Bank

Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) declined to 3.7% in January from previous 13%.Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) declined to 3.7% in January from previous 13%

Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY): -1.2% (January) vs previous -0.6%.Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY): -1.2% (January) vs previous -0.6%

Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.9%) in January: Actual (-0.5%).Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.9%) in January: Actual (-0.5%)

CHF: Limited SNB tools keep franc strong – Commerzbank.CHF: Limited SNB tools keep franc strong – Commerzbank

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 111.00 with bullish bias intact.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 111.00 with bullish bias intact

Oil Prices Surge, But Pause as Coordinated G7/IEA Strategic Reserve Release Comes Into Focus.Asian markets endured a severe sell-off today as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove a dramatic surge in global energy prices. Brent and WTI crude both surged toward the 120 per barrel mark, on intensifying fears that the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could evolve into a prolonged supply shock.

USD: Relative insulation from commodity turmoil – Rabobank.USD: Relative insulation from commodity turmoil – Rabobank

Japan reportedly calls on oil storage bases to prepare for release of stockpiles.For some context, there are ten national oil stockpiles in Japan. And they are either managed by the Japan Energy and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) and privately operated stockpiles.

Iran conflict forces central banks into sharp policy rethink.The escalating crisis in the Middle East has dramatically changed the outlook for global central banks, with the huge supply shock posing a ​difficult trade-off between underpinning growth and countering inflation.

G7, IEA reportedly considering joint release of emergency Oil reserves.G7, IEA reportedly considering joint release of emergency Oil reserves

WTI Price Forecast: Multi-year high above $126 looks possible.WTI Price Forecast: Multi-year high above $126 looks possible

Japan's Takaichi: Difficult to say now how Middle East conflict might affect Japan's economy.Japan's Takaichi: Difficult to say now how Middle East conflict might affect Japan's economy

Japan prime minister Takaichi: Hard to say how Middle East conflict could affect economy.In just a week, Japan has had to pay ~70% more dollars to secure the same amount of oil it needs to run the economy. And that really stings for a country that is ever so heavily reliant on energy imports.

Bahrain's major oil refinery also reportedly struck by Iranian drone attack.It is being reported by Reuters that there is thick smoke rising from the direction of Bahrain's Bapco oil refinery. This is one of the oldest and most strategic energy hubs in the region, with Bahrain even investing heavily to modernise the facility and infrastructure.

Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 112.4, below expectations (113.2) in January.Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 112.4, below expectations (113.2) in January

Japan Coincident Index climbed from previous 114.3 to 116.8 in January.Japan Coincident Index climbed from previous 114.3 to 116.8 in January

US CPI, Canada jobs, UK GDP in focus as oil crisis reshapes data week.As we head into this volatile week, the economic calendar is being viewed through a “dual-lens”: the cold, hard data from February (pre-war) versus the reality of $110+ oil prices and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Safe Is Relative: Why the Dollar, Yen, and Franc React Differently to Crisis.The U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc are often grouped as “safe haven” currencies. But the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran showed they don't always move in the same direction.

IMF's Georgieva warns Middle East conflict could push global inflation higher.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva ​on Monday warned ‌of inflation risks from the Middle East conflict, ​saying a 10% ​increase in oil prices, ⁠if persistent through ​most of the year, ​would result in a 40-basis-point increase in global inflation.

EUR/JPY loses traction below 183.00 as Middle East conflict lifts Japanese Yen.EUR/JPY loses traction below 183.00 as Middle East conflict lifts Japanese Yen

FX Futures Positioning: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD | COT report.The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an important shift in US dollar positioning across the futures market. After reaching a five-year extreme in net-short exposure, traders have begun trimming bearish bets against the USD, helping fuel the dollar's recent rebound.

Oil rally accelerates: Could WTI reach 130, 150, or even 200?.WTI crude oil surged above 110 mark at the start of the week, extending an explosive rally that has already lifted prices roughly 50% since the Middle East conflict began on February 28. The latest move followed a violent gap-up at the weekly open, highlighting how quickly markets are adjusting to the possibility that the crisis may evolve into a sustained disruption to global energy supply or even production.

Indian central bank likely selling dollars to avert rupee slide to record low, traders say.The Indian central likely stepped into ​the foreign exchange market ‌on Monday, four traders told Reuters, to limit the ​rupee's decline as a ​surge in oil prices ⁠pummelled currencies across Asia.