Crude Oil –16.03.2026.  Crude Oil managed to print around 100 today closing from the target of 101.50. As we see from the Intraday chart, prices face support around 95.00, and if the market holds above it, more advance is still expected towards 101.50.

Prediction markets watch.The biggest move is in rates. The market mood has turned more hawkish as energy-driven inflation risk rises, even though many economists were still recently centered on a June Fed cut.

BoE: MPC to remain on hold as energy shock bites – Societe Generale.BoE: MPC to remain on hold as energy shock bites – Societe Generale

USD: Conflict-driven support faces de-escalation risk – HSBC.USD: Conflict-driven support faces de-escalation risk – HSBC

Fed Preview: Holding a Steady Hand.FOMC participants had a few days to discuss the war in Iran before the March blackout begun, and the message heard from both hawks and doves was noticeably uniform. Hammack, Miran and Kashkari said it is ‘too early' to judge the impact on the economy, while Williams, Barkin, Waller and Daly all underscored that they need more time to evaluate the implications for monetary policy.

Internation Energy Agency Said Oil from Emergency Reserves Will Soon Start Flowing.Markets on Friday (and this morning) tried to assess impact of ongoing elevated oil prices (Brent near $100 p/b) and other energy prices on the economy and central banks' reaction function as visibility on the end game of the war in Iran remains very low. On Interest rate markets, the pressure of potentially higher, lasting inflation and fears for de-anchoring of inflation expectations, now ever more also filters through toward the long and of the curve.

US, Japan top diplomats set for phone conversation later today - report.It is reported that a call is being arranged between Japan foreign minister Motegi and US secretary of state Rubio for later today, according to sources familiar with bilateral relations. Among what will be discussed is likely the topic of the Strait of Hormuz, after US president Trump has called for ally countries to dispatch warships to the region to act as escorts.

Oil News: WTI Crude Oil Tests $98.11 Pivot as Strait Risk Drives Volatility.Crude oil outlook turns volatile as WTI pivots on $98.11 and Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten global supply. Traders eye $100 as war headlines drive futures.

First Light News – Week Ahead: Middle East Conflict; Central Bank Announcements and Inflation Fears.The duration of this war and how long the Strait remains blockaded will decide the ultimate outcome here.

AUD: RBA hike expectations offer support – BBH.AUD: RBA hike expectations offer support – BBH

USD/JPY: Intervention risk and BOJ options – DBS.USD/JPY: Intervention risk and BOJ options – DBS

Turkey Budget Balance: 24.37B (February) vs -214.54B.Turkey Budget Balance: 24.37B (February) vs -214.54B

India Trade Deficit Government came in at $27.1B below forecasts ($28B) in February.India Trade Deficit Government came in at $27.1B below forecasts ($28B) in February

Canada CPI expected to edge lower in February ahead of BoC rate meeting.Canada CPI expected to edge lower in February ahead of BoC rate meeting

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Hormuz Crisis Send WTI to $120?.As the Hormuz crisis threatens supply, WTI eyes $120. Will diplomatic efforts cool the market or is a massive price spike inevitable?

Fed: Holding rates with oil-driven inflation risks – Deutsche Bank.Fed: Holding rates with oil-driven inflation risks – Deutsche Bank

China reaffirms that they are in communication with US on Trump's visit.As a reminder, US president Trump is scheduled to make a visit to China from 31 March to 2 April. Beijing has not officially confirmed the dates but it seems like the visit will still take place regardless.

Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP Steady as ECB Decision Looms.The Pound to Euro exchange rate traded near multi-week highs last week as investors reassessed the outlook for Bank of England policy amid rising global energy prices. Latest — Exchange Rates:Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.15836Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.32248Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.14168 DAILY RECAP: The Pound (GBP) edged higher.

Central Banks Face the Heat from the Energy Shock.Today, focus continues to be on tensions in the Middle East and its impact on energy markets. Trump stated on Friday that the US will be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week”, which likely will continue to disrupt already volatile energy markets.

USD: Tactical haven support but structural headwinds – BBH.USD: Tactical haven support but structural headwinds – BBH

ECB: Hawkish hold as oil shock assessed – Societe Generale.ECB: Hawkish hold as oil shock assessed – Societe Generale

Markets Cautious as Hormuz Escort Plan Runs Into Resistance.Markets stayed cautious today as hopes for a multinational naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz ran into early resistance from key governments. While the proposal briefly raised expectations that the disruption to Middle East energy flows might be contained, several countries have so far stopped short of committing naval assets, leaving traders waiting for clearer signals before taking large positions.

USD/JPY: Volatile test of 160 possible – Commerzbank.USD/JPY: Volatile test of 160 possible – Commerzbank

How the yen's safe haven aura is fading.The Japanese yen is one of the world's pre-eminent safe haven currencies - typically expected to strengthen in times of market turmoil. So why has it performed so poorly in the face of the U.S. and Israel's war with ​Iran?

India WPI Inflation above expectations (2%) in February: Actual (2.13%).India WPI Inflation above expectations (2%) in February: Actual (2.13%)

Bank of England to play for time as war brings inflation heat.The Bank of England will choose its words even more carefully than usual this week ​alongside its expected decision to delay an interest rate cut in the face of inflation risks from the war in the Middle East.

Canadian Dollar underperforms as job market deteriorates, inflation data eyed.Canadian Dollar underperforms as job market deteriorates, inflation data eyed

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 111.50, supported by bullish technicals and China data.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 111.50, supported by bullish technicals and China data

US moves troops trom Japan to the Middle East.US moves troops trom Japan to the Middle East

Japan starts release of oil from reserves as war snarls flows – Bloomberg.Japan starts release of oil from reserves as war snarls flows – Bloomberg