RBNZ Shadow Board Backs Hold at 2.25%, Three Call for Immediate Hike.A split emerged within the NZIER Monetary Shadow Board ahead of this week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision. While the majority recommended keeping the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, several members argued that tightening should begin immediately as inflation pressures build.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 185.00 barrier near descending channel top.EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 185.00 barrier near descending channel top

ECB's Lagarde Signals Higher Inflation Forecasts, June Hike Bets Firm.ECB President Christine Lagarde opened the door wider to a June rate hike after signaling that the central bank's inflation forecasts are likely to move higher again. Lagarde said the ECB's March projection of 2.6% inflation for 2026 “will probably be revised,” noting that “the situation has evolved” since those estimates were published.

US-Iran deal optimism offers Indian rupee, bonds a breather.The Indian rupee and government bonds are likely to kick off the week on firmer footing as expectations rise that a breakthrough might be imminent in the three-month-old U.S.-Iran war after U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran ​deal is "largely negotiated".

US Dollar Index weakens to near 99.00 on US-Iran peace deal hopes.US Dollar Index weakens to near 99.00 on US-Iran peace deal hopes

Iran Talks Drive Market Focus as USD/JPY Tests Higher.The week remained focused on the Iran situation, as negotiations reached an important stage. Some progress was reported, but major issues remained, especially around Iran's uranium enrichment program and how quickly sanctions could be eased.

British Pound gains ground above 1.3450 on US–Iran progress.British Pound gains ground above 1.3450 on US–Iran progress

Canadian Dollar edges higher vs USD; Oil slump cap gains amid Iran peace deal hopes.Canadian Dollar edges higher vs USD; Oil slump cap gains amid Iran peace deal hopes

Dollar slumps as signs of deal to reopen Hormuz spur risk appetite.The dollar slipped at the start of Asian trading on Monday as hopes of a deal to reopen the ​Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices below $100 per barrel, even as ‌the Trump administration played down the chances of reaching an agreement with Iran soon.

Singapore smashes growth estimates but trade ministry flags Middle East risks.Singapore's economy grew 6.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, well above the advance estimate of 4.6%, though the trade ministry kept its full-year forecast at 2.0% to 4.0% amid Iran war risks. (

Japanese Yen edges higher to near 159.00 as US, Iran signal peace progress.Japanese Yen edges higher to near 159.00 as US, Iran signal peace progress

WTI tumbles 5% on renewed hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.WTI tumbles 5% on renewed hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening

Euro gathers strength to near 1.1650 on US-Iran peace progress.Euro gathers strength to near 1.1650 on US-Iran peace progress

Australian Dollar gains momentum above 0.7150 on US-Iran peace deal hopes.Australian Dollar gains momentum above 0.7150 on US-Iran peace deal hopes

Middle East War updates: Trump says US-Iran peace deal ‘isn't even fully negotiated yet'.Middle East War updates: Trump says US-Iran peace deal ‘isn't even fully negotiated yet'

Oil News: Oil Demand and Iran Headlines Keep Crude Futures on Edge.Crude oil futures stay on edge as Iran talks stall, oil demand rises and traders watch key support levels and risk premium.

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: WTI Risks Pullback as US-Iran Deal Nears Completion.WTI crude oil risks a deeper pullback as negotiations between the United States and Iran appear to be advancing, raising expectations for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian oil exports. Market speculation around easing geopolitical tensions has already pressured prices lower, although the outcome remains uncertain and not fully priced into markets yet.

Interest Rates Forecast: Treasury Yield Surge Drives USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD.Treasury yields remain the main driver of the global interest rate outlook as inflation, fiscal stress and rising debt pressure support the U.S. dollar and shape the direction of USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD.

Trump Announces Iran Breakthrough — But Will Oil and Yields Believe It?.Global markets are entering the new week facing an important question: did US President Donald Trump just announce the beginning of real peace in the Middle East, or merely a ceasefire extension in a still-dangerous conflict?

How to manage the rupee while protecting growth.First, on the rupee, one of the most effective ways to stabilise the currency is to improve the flow of foreign exchange into the country. While India has made significant progress on the export side, there is still substantial work required in attracting larger and more consistent foreign portfolio investment and foreign direct investment.

Hot Core PCE Could Trigger Major Market Selloff.With yields already elevated and rate hike odds back in play, another hot Core PCE report could spark a broad cross-asset selloff.

Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar.The resilience of the US economy is remarkable. The economy bounced back from near stagnation in Q4 25 (0.5% annualized pace) to 2% in Q1 26 and, and perhaps to 4.3% this quarter, if the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker is accurate.

Natural Gas News: Weather Shift Sends Natural Gas Futures Lower Friday.Natural gas futures slid as cooler weather forecasts cut demand outlooks while strong production and rising inventory kept pressure on prices.

UK floated single market for goods with EU, media say.Britain's government proposed the creation of a single market for goods with the European Union in what would be an ambitious ​reset of its post-Brexit ties with the bloc, but Brussels ‌has rejected the idea, British media reported.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Waller Validates Hawkish Shift as 160 Looms.Fed pricing looms as the dominant driver for USD/JPY this week with markets now shifting from debating how many times the Federal Reserve may cut rates this year to whether it may need to tighten policy further over the next 12 months. That leaves incoming US inflation data, Fed speak and developments in the Gulf likely to dictate direction given the implications each may have for the inflation outlook and front-end interest rate pricing.

A Final Path to Peace? Markets Weekly Outlook.Market participants endured an absolute rollercoaster of emotions over the past five sessions, navigating a market that violently whipsawed between extreme fear and sudden euphoria. The week kicked off with intense anxiety as the United States firmly rejected an initial Iranian diplomatic offer, a move that immediately spiked crude oil prices and threatened to reignite severe inflationary pressures.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Markets Position for Higher-For-Longer Oil Prices.Canadian financial markets seemingly exhaled a bit this week, catalyzed (to borrow a phrase from PM Carney) by constructive developments for the inflation backdrop. One important trigger was messaging that a U.S.-Iran deal may be in its final stages.

Canada's GDP Growth Likely Turned Positive in Q1 After Q4 Contraction.Canada's economy likely returned to growth in Q1 2026 with gross domestic product bouncing back by an annualized 1.7% after declining 0.6% in Q4, supported by improving domestic growth drivers.

Singapore Dollar: Mild bullish against US Dollar within tight range – UOB.Singapore Dollar: Mild bullish against US Dollar within tight range – UOB

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Support Failure Signals Deeper Drop.Natural gas breaks below key confluence support after a failed bull pennant, shifting momentum bearish with downside targets toward major Fibonacci and moving average levels.