US: Consumer Spending Remained Soft in February.Personal income edged lower by 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) in February, coming in below market expectations for a 0.3% gain. Adjusting for taxes and transfers, disposable income also declined by 0.1%, following a strong gain in January that was due to the annual cost-of-living adjustment for social security benefits.

Brent Oil Stalls at $100 Ahead of Islamabad Talks, $80 or $110+ Next?.Global markets have shifted from ceasefire euphoria to cautious consolidation, with Brent oil recovering from initial selloff and stabilizing at around $100, as traders await clarity from high-stakes talks in Islamabad. The initial relief rally in stocks has also stalled quickly, highlighting skepticism that the current truce can deliver a lasting de-escalation.

Sterling edges up as Middle East tensions steer market sentiment.The British pound edged higher against the US dollar on Thursday, retaining most of the gains recorded in the previous session following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. However, uncertainty surrounding the durability of the deal limited further upside in sterling.

USD: Recovery relies on risk aversion – MUFG.USD: Recovery relies on risk aversion – MUFG

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $767.5B from previous $775.4B.Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $767.5B from previous $775.4B

Brazil to appeal court ruling suspending oil export tax, says minister.Brazil's government ​will appeal a ‌court ruling that suspended an oil export ​tax for ​some companies, Mines and ⁠Energy Minister ​Alexandre Silveira told ​Reuters on Thursday.

US Core PCE Inflation Eases Slightly to 3% in February.In February, US personal income fell -0.1% mom, or USD 18.2B, undershooting expectations of 0.3% growth. In contrast, personal spending rose 0.5% mom, or USD 103.2B, in line with forecasts, pointing to continued consumption strength despite weaker income dynamics.

US GDP expands at annual rate of 0.5% in Q4 vs 0.7% expected.US GDP expands at annual rate of 0.5% in Q4 vs 0.7% expected

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise but Continuing Claims Signal Labor Market Resilience.US initial jobless claims rose from 203k to 219k in the week ending April 3, coming in above expectations of 210k and pointing to a modest pickup in layoffs. The four-week moving average also edged higher by 1.5k to 209.5k, suggesting some softening at the margin in labor market conditions.

US initial jobless claims 219K vs 210K estimate.Initial jobless claims area a weekly report of the US Department of the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. As a key leading indicator, this data signals changes in the labor market, impacting financial markets and helping forecast unemployment rates

NZD: RBNZ warns on upside inflation risks – BNY.NZD: RBNZ warns on upside inflation risks – BNY

investingLive European markets wrap: Oil prices bounce on fragile US-Iran truce.The US camp is eyeing some positive news from talks tomorrow but Iran is continuing to reaffirm that negotiations are not quite in good faith as the ceasefire agreement has already been violated. Only time will tell if we will see any positive developments ahead of the weekend now.

Mexico Headline Inflation below forecasts (0.88%) in March: Actual (0.86%).Mexico Headline Inflation below forecasts (0.88%) in March: Actual (0.86%)

JPY: Investor flows signal shifting bond appetite – MUFG.JPY: Investor flows signal shifting bond appetite – MUFG

Sterling ticks higher, remains driven by Middle East developments.The pound inched higher on the dollar on Thursday and held onto the bulk of U.S.-Iran ceasefire-inspired gains the previous session, ​though with that deal looking fragile it failed to climb ‌any further.

PLN: NBP pause extended by Iran shock – Commerzbank.PLN: NBP pause extended by Iran shock – Commerzbank

South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) dipped from previous -0.7% to -2.8% in February.South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) dipped from previous -0.7% to -2.8% in February

Reality Check Hits Markets as Ceasefire Fragility Weighs, US PCE Data in Focus.The relief rally that swept through global markets on Wednesday has hit a significant roadblock this morning. As we move through the European session, the initial euphoria surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire is being replaced by a cold dose of reality.

The Upcoming Inflation Shock and What it Means for Traders.The financial world is holding its breath for this Friday, 10 April, when the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is released. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) dual mandate—maximum employment and price stability—makes every CPI print a direct input into rate decisions, but this time, it is not just another data

US CPI report coming up tomorrow, what to expect?.Even though it will be a case of energy prices boosting headline inflation, core prices are also expected to see some spillover impact. And the main issue is that the longer the US-Iran conflict drags on, the deeper and more scarring it will be on consumer behaviour and business pricing in general.

WTI Crude Oil returns above $93.00 as concerns about the ceasefire grow.WTI Crude Oil returns above $93.00 as concerns about the ceasefire grow

Fed: FOMC minutes reinforce rate cut path risks – UOB.Fed: FOMC minutes reinforce rate cut path risks – UOB

AUD: Preferred G10 relief trade on de-escalation – OCBC.AUD: Preferred G10 relief trade on de-escalation – OCBC

Markets Today: Reality check hits markets as ceasefire fragility weighs, US PCE data in focus.The initial euphoria over the US-Iran ceasefire is replaced by caution as reports of potential breaches and Strait of Hormuz concerns cause European equities to retreat. Brent crude claws back ground to $97/bbl, suggesting an inflationary surge is "baked into" upcoming data and keeping two ECB rate hikes priced in.

DXY: Range anchored as Fed cut seen – BBH.DXY: Range anchored as Fed cut seen – BBH

Eurozone: Inflation impact from energy shock – Nordea.Eurozone: Inflation impact from energy shock – Nordea

AUD/JPY remains above 111.50 as higher oil prices weigh on Japanese Yen.AUD/JPY remains above 111.50 as higher oil prices weigh on Japanese Yen

BoJ's Ueda: Negative Real Rates Sustain Investment, Warns of Fiscal Crowding-Out Risks.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that monetary policy remains supportive, noting that real interest rates in Japan are still “clearly negative” and keeping financial conditions accommodative.

Greece Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.8% in February from previous 5.3%.Greece Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.8% in February from previous 5.3%

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction declined to 3.435% from previous 3.476%.Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction declined to 3.435% from previous 3.476%