WTI holds gains above $75.00 despite easing supply concerns, Fed rate hike odds in 2026.WTI holds gains above $75.00 despite easing supply concerns, Fed rate hike odds in 2026

USD/JPY, EUR/USD outlook: A different Fed changes the FX outlook.A hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve has seen markets rapidly reprice the US rates outlook, pushing Treasury yields and US dollar higher in the process. The result is a widening in interest rate differentials, helping propel USD/JPY back towards levels that previously forced the Ministry of Finance into action.

Euro rebounds above 1.1500 on US‑Iran peace breakthrough, Fed holds rate.Euro rebounds above 1.1500 on US‑Iran peace breakthrough, Fed holds rate

US President Donald Trump signs US-Iran MoU to end war.US President Donald Trump signs US-Iran MoU to end war

Bank of England on track to hold rates as Iran response eyed.The Bank of England looks on course to keep interest ​rates unchanged at 3.75% later on Thursday as it assesses what a tentative truce in the Iran war means for inflation.

0.8%: New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product grows less than expected in Q1.0.8%: New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product grows less than expected in Q1

New Zealand Q1 GDP 0.8% q/q (0.9% expected) and 1.5% y/y (1.1% expected).Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately.

New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (1.1%) in 1Q.New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (1.1%) in 1Q

Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (14.25%).Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (14.25%)

Japanese Yen tumbles as Fed signals higher rate path.Japanese Yen tumbles as Fed signals higher rate path

Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, June 18, 2026: New Zealand Q1 GDP preview.New Zealand's March quarter GDP data is expected to show the economy gained solid momentum in the early months of 2026, even as the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February looms as a far larger threat to output in the quarters ahead.

British Pound double-teamed by soft CPI and a hawkish Fed.British Pound double-teamed by soft CPI and a hawkish Fed

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Falling Channel Signals Rising Downside Risk.Natural gas is testing a critical support zone after confirming another lower swing high, with a developing falling channel raising the risk of further downside.

Dollar jumps as Fed holds rates but projects one hike later this year.The dollar strengthened as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but signaled a potential hike later this year, with policymakers raising inflation projections. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's revised statement removed forward guidance, impacting market expectations.

Warsh's Fed begins with a hawkish message and a promise of reform.Warsh's Fed begins with a hawkish message and a promise of reform

What did the markets do from the start to the end of the Fed Warsh Press conference.The overall takeaway is that the market interpreted Warsh and the Fed as more hawkish than expected, with the strongest reaction seen in the U.S. dollar and front-end Treasury yields. Stocks weakened modestly, while precious metals came under additional pressure.

FOMC Recap: Warsh the Reformer as the Committee Shifts Hawkish.The FOMC was more hawkish than anticipated, with interest rates rising across the curve, stock indices edging lower, and the.

US Dollar Index storms higher as Warsh's Fed trades cuts for hikes.US Dollar Index storms higher as Warsh's Fed trades cuts for hikes

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Pulls Back From Session Highs.Oil markets made an attempt to rebound but lost momentum and pulled back.

Japanese Yen falls after Fed holds rates, Warsh's first dot plot signals caution.Japanese Yen falls after Fed holds rates, Warsh's first dot plot signals caution

Where are the market levels as Warsh begins his press conference.Takeaway: The front end is selling off sharply, pushing short-term yields higher. The move suggests traders are scaling back expectations for lower rates, and raising of expectations

British Pound sinks as Warsh's hawkish dots power US Dollar.British Pound sinks as Warsh's hawkish dots power US Dollar

Euro folds as the Fed trades cuts for hikes.Euro folds as the Fed trades cuts for hikes

Fed Holds Steady but Dot Plot Turns Hawkish as Officials Signal Rate Hike Ahead.The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% as widely expected, but the updated projections delivered a distinctly hawkish message. In a notably shorter post-meeting statement, policymakers acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty stemming partly from the Middle East conflict.

Dollar extends gains after Fed holds rates but projects hike later this year.The U.S. dollar ​extended gains against ‌the euro on Wednesday, after the ​Federal Reserve ​held the benchmark interest ⁠rate steady ​and the Fed's statement showed ​policymakers expect a hike in borrowing costs ​later this ​year amid growing concerns about ‌inflation.

UK Inflation Remains Unchanged in May, Ahead of BoE's Policy Meeting.Inflation in Great Britain remained unchanged at 2.8% in May, against expectations for 3% rise, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco components, rose slightly less than expected to 2.6% from 2.5% in April.

WTI stabilizes below $76 as markets assess the impact of US-Iran deal.WTI stabilizes below $76 as markets assess the impact of US-Iran deal

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Retail Sales Exceed Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency is moving higher ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision.

Brazil pushes for focused rural debt relief as Senate passes broad bill.Brazil's government backs a rural debt renegotiation program but wants it more targeted, the Finance Ministry ​said on Wednesday.

Trump: Says the Iran deal will open Strait of Hormuz.G7 leaders are thrilled we made a deal. The last night was brutal.