AUD: RBA flags oil-driven inflation risks – Rabobank.AUD: RBA flags oil-driven inflation risks – Rabobank

Brent Crude Trading at $113.5/b This Morning Indicative to Lack of Confidence in an Off-Ramp.The fog of war thickens as we've entered the US's initial 4-to-6 weeks timeline to achieve its military goals in Iran. Only yesterday, US President Trump indicated that the US is in serious discussions with the (new) regime in Iran, but that it can still destroy Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn't immediately open for business.

German Retail Sales decline unexpectedly by 0.6% MoM vs. estimates of 0.2% growth.German Retail Sales decline unexpectedly by 0.6% MoM vs. estimates of 0.2% growth

German import prices move up slightly in February, just before the US-Iran war impact.German import prices for the month of February showed a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month. But when benchmarked against the same month a year ago, import prices were seen down 2.3%.

Elliott Wave Outlook: Oil (CL) Zigzag Rally Targets $110 Area.After surging to $119.7 on March 9, crude oil experienced a sharp decline, reaching $76.73 by March 11. This retreat unfolded in the form of a five-wave impulsive Elliott Wave structure, marking a decisive corrective phase.

Spotlight on Euro Area March Inflation Figures.In the euro area, we receive the flash March inflation print. We expect HICP inflation will rise to 2.6% y/y (from 1.9%) while core inflation should fall slightly to 2.3% y/y (from 2.4%).

Bonds Rebound as Yields Become Attractive.Yesterday was marked by a rebound in sovereign bonds on expectation that rising oil prices—which will send inflation soaring in the coming months—would also hit economic growth and, in turn, limit central banks' ability to raise rates to the extent currently priced by markets. In other words, higher energy prices—and possible energy scarcity—could slow global economies enough to prevent central banks from tightening as aggressively.

Markets Shrug Trump Iran Exit Report as Oil Prices Hold Firm on Supply Risks.The global energy market has effectively shrugged off a Wall Street Journal report suggesting US President Donald Trump is exploring an Iran exit strategy. Brent oil stays above $110 after a remarkably shallow dip.

Oil Price Forecast: Iran Attack on Tanker Sparks Supply Fears, Brent Eyes Further Gains.Oil prices are rising sharply as Middle East tensions disrupt supply routes and energy infrastructure, while Iran's tanker attack adds further risk and bullish technical signals point to continued upside in crude.

Kospi Index, South Korean won are slumping: what next?.South Korea's stocks have retreated sharply in the past few weeks as the impact of the ongoing US-Iran war continued. The Kospi Index dropped by over 3.3% on Tuesday, down by 20% from its highest point this year, meaning it has moved into a technical bear market.

Oil and war top financial markets worry list for an uncertain Q2.Battered financial markets enter the second quarter significantly exposed to war headlines, a backdrop that could prompt a bigger retreat for equity markets while a hefty selloff in bonds could tempt buyers back.

Japan Construction Orders (YoY): 42.7% (February) vs 5.7%.Japan Construction Orders (YoY): 42.7% (February) vs 5.7%

Risk sentiment on the up but is it another false dawn?.The report says that the US might look to wind down military activity in the Middle East. That after it accomplishes in degrading Iran's naval and missile capabilities.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls struggle below 160.00 amid intervention fears, softer USD.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls struggle below 160.00 amid intervention fears, softer USD

China PMIs Return to Expansion as Output and Orders Rebound, but Cost Pressures Surge.China's official PMIs showed a return to expansion in March, with Manufacturing PMI rising from 49.0 to 50.4, beating expectations of 50.3 and marking the strongest reading in a year. The rebound snapped two months of contraction, driven by a pickup in production and a sharp improvement in new orders, with export demand showing notable momentum.

Japan brands yen falls as 'speculative' as Iran war ignites sell-off.Japan on Tuesday labelled recent yen falls as speculative for ​the first time since the Middle East war began, shifting its focus back to currency short-sellers as policymakers braced for a triple market sell-off ‌driven by fresh inflationary concerns.

RBA Minutes Highlight Excess Demand and Oil Shock as Case for Further Tightening.RBA minutes at the Mrach meeting revealed a clear bias toward further near-term tightening, as policymakers judged that inflation remains too high and risks have increased following the recent surge in oil prices. Members noted that “inflation remained too high” and that the economy was still operating with “excess demand”, with labour market conditions tightening slightly further beyond levels consistent with full employment.

AUD/JPY steadies near 109.50 following China's PMI, Japan's CPI data.AUD/JPY steadies near 109.50 following China's PMI, Japan's CPI data

USD/PHP forecast as the Philippine peso crashes to record low.The Philippine peso continued its strong downward trend and is now hovering near its all-time low as the country's economy remains under pressure amid the ongoing US-Iran war. The USD/PHP exchange rate was trading at 60.65, a few points below the all-time high of 60.75.

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news: Trump open to ending war without Hormuz opening (WSJ).Geopolitical tensions escalated further, with multiple flashpoints across the Middle East. Iran struck a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker anchored in Dubai's port, damaging the hull and igniting a fire onboard, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.

US Dollar Index (DXY) eases from YTD peak, trades below 100.50 on Iran de-escalation hopes.US Dollar Index (DXY) eases from YTD peak, trades below 100.50 on Iran de-escalation hopes

Canadian Dollar remains weaker as oil slips.Canadian Dollar remains weaker as oil slips

WTI plummets below $100 as Trump calls for truce without Hormuz reopening.WTI plummets below $100 as Trump calls for truce without Hormuz reopening

NZ ANZ Business Confidence Tumbles to 32.5 as Cost Pressures Surge to Highest Since 2023.New Zealand's business confidence deteriorated sharply in March, with ANZ Business Confidence falling from 59.2 to 32.5 as geopolitical tensions disrupted the recovery narrative. The decline was even more pronounced in late-month responses, which averaged -23, highlighting how sentiment worsened as uncertainty intensified following the escalation in the Middle East.

China factory activity hits 1-year high as PMIs return to expansion.China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March, a one-year high, with all PMIs returning to expansion, though rising input costs and Middle East war risks threaten the durability of the recovery.

Japan Factory Output Contracts as Auto Weakness Weighs, Outlook Remains Uncertain.Japan's industrial production contracted -2.1% mom in February, matching expectations and marking the first decline in three months. The drop was driven largely by weaker automobile output, with production falling across 12 of 15 sectors.

Japan Tokyo CPI Core Weakens to 1.7% as Energy Subsidies Drag Inflation Lower.Japan's Tokyo CPI data for March showed further easing in inflation, with core CPI (ex-fresh food) slipping from 1.8% yoy to 1.7% yoy, below expectations of 1.8% yoy. The reading marks the lowest level since April 2024 and remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a second consecutive month.

Rupee crashes past 95/$, logs worst annual fall in 14 years.The Indian Rupee experienced a significant drop, breaching the 95 per dollar mark. This marked the steepest decline in 14 years, with the last month being particularly challenging.

First Impressions: NZ business confidence, March 2026.Business confidence understandably fell in March, particularly later in the month as the consequences of the Middle East conflict for New Zealand became more apparent.

China's NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs return to expansion in March.China's NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs return to expansion in March