FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR, JPY, CAD | COT report.US dollar positioning has eased for a second consecutive week after reaching a bullish extreme two weeks ago. At the same time, bullish bets are building across parts of FX—particularly EUR, GBP and CAD—while yen shorts continue to rise.

Canadian Dollar advances as oil prices gain on stalled US–Iran peace talks.Canadian Dollar advances as oil prices gain on stalled US–Iran peace talks

China industrial profits surge at fastest pace since September in boost for economy.China's industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, the fastest pace since September, with Q1 profits up 15.5%, beating the prior 15.2% reading.

USD/JPY Nears 160 Again on Strong U.S. Data Ahead of BoJ Meeting.The extension of the two-week Iran ceasefire helped global stock markets continue to rise last week. However, WTI oil prices also moved higher as traders stayed focused on the risk of oil supply disruption.

Japanese Yen holds steady as BoJ and Fed rate decisions in focus.Japanese Yen holds steady as BoJ and Fed rate decisions in focus

India rupee, bonds under strain on elevated oil; Fed guidance in focus.Indian rupee and bonds are likely to extend declines this week as oil prices remain elevated on fading hopes of peace between Washington and Tehran after U.S. President Donald Trump told envoys not to resume talks.

Dollar advances as US-Iran talks suffer setback.The U.S. dollar started Monday's session on the front foot as dimming hopes of a deal to end the Middle East war ​sapped the mood, keeping the Japanese yen pinned near the crucial 160 level ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision later in ‌the week.

Dollar demand, FPI outflows, oil prices to weigh on rupee.The Indian rupee is anticipated to decline further this week, breaking its recent stable trading band. Strong dollar demand, rising oil import costs, and consistent foreign investor withdrawals are pressuring the currency.

Iran's Araghchi holds talks with Oman on ending war and securing Hormuz.Iran's Araghchi holds talks with Oman on ending war and securing Hormuz

China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge.China's import growth is forecast to hit a five-year high of 5% in 2026, overtaking export growth for the first time since 2021, driven by a surge in AI-related chip purchases. (Info via Bloomberg, gated).

Natural Gas News: Storage Report Crushes Weather Rally in Natural Gas Futures.May Nymex Natural Gas fades into expiration as a record April storage build crushes the weather rally and keeps the bearish trend firmly intact.

EUR/JPY Forecast: Bulls Circle as BOJ Decision Looms.EUR/JPY is eyeing a potential bullish breakout from a pennant structure on the H4 chart, putting the focus on whether the price can retest the April highs. With momentum indicators starting to improve and the looming BOJ decision carrying major implications for the yen, the setup offers a blend of technical opportunity and event risk.

Economic and event calendar in Asia Monday, April 27, 2026. Very light..Very sparse. Not likely to move financial markets the one set of items that is due.

Oil News: Supply Fear vs. Oil Demand Sets Up a Pivotal Week for Brent Crude.Supply fear is holding Brent crude oil up but demand is pushing back. This week's price action will determine if the rally has legs or starts to grind.

Australian Dollar softens amid Middle East tensions.Australian Dollar softens amid Middle East tensions

Oil jumps, stock futures slip as US-Iran talks stall.Oil prices rose, the dollar inched higher and U.S. stock futures wobbled lower in early Asia ​trade on Monday after U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled ‌over the weekend, leaving Gulf shipping blocked.

An hour after the Globex open Trump will be speaking in an interview on 60 Minutes.Trump was his usual delusional self over the weekend: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious Expect more of the same when he speaks on the telly soon. Still, markets seem to like his reassurance.

Northern Japan early morning earthquake. M6.1.An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.1 hit norther Japan, Hokkaido early on Monday morning local time. depth 81km 2023 GMT on Sunday I haven't heard of a tsunami alert as yet.

USD/JPY forecast: triangle forms ahead of FOMC, BoJ rate decisions.The USD/JPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Hormuz Strait Ebbs and Tides Still Flowing - 26 April 2026.The finish for WTI Crude Oil going into this weekend was near $93.115, this after touching a high close to 96.950 on Thursday, and having completed the previous week's results below $84.000.

Pound Sterling: GBP Supported as Retail Sales Beat Forecasts.Pound Sterling edged higher against major peers after UK retail sales surprised to the upside, suggesting consumers are holding up better than expected in the face of rising energy costs. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rose to 1.3534 (+0.51%), while Pound-to-Euro rate climbed to 1.1545 (+0.17%), as stronger domestic data lent.

US Dollar Predicted to Strengthen as Iran War Oil Shock Lifts Inflation Risks: ING.The US Dollar remained firm, with markets favouring the currency as geopolitical tensions escalated following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Latest — Exchange Rates:Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.35335Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.17218Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): 159.374 ING notes that the longer the Strait remains shut, the.

Fed Interest Rate Outlook: Will Inflation and Oil Prices Delay Rate Cuts?.The Fed faces renewed inflation pressure, higher oil prices, and leadership uncertainty, while a cautious policy stance could keep the U.S. dollar supported and shape the next move in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and commodities.

Egypt economic outlook trimmed slightly due to Iran war.Analysts have shaved their forecasts for Egyptian economic growth in a Reuters poll for this year and next as the Iran war drives up energy prices and puts ​pressure on inflation.

Euro Weekly Forecast into ECB: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY.The backdrop in EUR/USD is likely to be determined at least partially by the time frame with which the trader or analyst is looking. From a fundamental basis, there's been periods where the backdrop has appeared to be divorced from the price action such as the sliding sell-off in March even as the European Central Bank was widely considered to be on the way to rate hikes.

May 2026 Monthly.The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead.

Dual Pressure on Dollar: Fading US–Iran Risks and the Warsh Fed Factor.Dollar's inability to hold onto last week's gains is emerging as a key signal that the broader trend may be turning lower again. While the greenback initially found some support on headlines of stalled US–Iran talks, the move quickly lost momentum as markets shifted focus to ceasefire extensions and renewed diplomatic efforts.

Global Market Outlook: U.S.-U.K. Tariff Risks and Oil Shocks Drive Volatility.U.S.-U.K. tariff risk and the Persian Gulf oil shock are driving volatility across GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, the FTSE 100, U.S. stocks, bonds, and commodities as Fed liquidity continues to support risk assets.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Hormuz overshadows huge BOJ and Fed week.USD/JPY has reverted to a straight rates play between the US and Japan, with developments in the Gulf the key underlying driver of both outlooks. Extended uncertainty surrounding the Iran war now has both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan expected to keep policy settings on hold in the near term, a sharp shift from the pre-conflict view that the Fed would cut at least two times this year while the BOJ hiked twice.

Markets Weekly Outlook – Can Earnings Outweigh Geopolitical Headwinds & Central Bank Decisions?.Global markets find themselves at a crossroads as the week draws to a close, with the narrative shifting between geopolitical caution and corporate optimism. While the US Dollar eased slightly on Friday, it remains on track for a weekly gain as traders weigh the potential for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.