May 2026 Monthly.The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead.

Dual Pressure on Dollar: Fading US–Iran Risks and the Warsh Fed Factor.Dollar's inability to hold onto last week's gains is emerging as a key signal that the broader trend may be turning lower again. While the greenback initially found some support on headlines of stalled US–Iran talks, the move quickly lost momentum as markets shifted focus to ceasefire extensions and renewed diplomatic efforts.

Global Market Outlook: U.S.-U.K. Tariff Risks and Oil Shocks Drive Volatility.U.S.-U.K. tariff risk and the Persian Gulf oil shock are driving volatility across GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, the FTSE 100, U.S. stocks, bonds, and commodities as Fed liquidity continues to support risk assets.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Hormuz overshadows huge BOJ and Fed week.USD/JPY has reverted to a straight rates play between the US and Japan, with developments in the Gulf the key underlying driver of both outlooks. Extended uncertainty surrounding the Iran war now has both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan expected to keep policy settings on hold in the near term, a sharp shift from the pre-conflict view that the Fed would cut at least two times this year while the BOJ hiked twice.

Markets Weekly Outlook – Can Earnings Outweigh Geopolitical Headwinds & Central Bank Decisions?.Global markets find themselves at a crossroads as the week draws to a close, with the narrative shifting between geopolitical caution and corporate optimism. While the US Dollar eased slightly on Friday, it remains on track for a weekly gain as traders weigh the potential for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Well Behaved Core Inflation Strengthens BoC Hold Case.The fluid Middle East situation continued to drive Canadian financial markets. Oil prices remain volatile, with WTI up this week amid limited progress on diplomatic efforts between Iran and the U.S. Canadian bond yields also edged higher (as of writing), with Middle East tensions keeping inflation risks in focus.

Bank of Canada Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged as GDP Tracks Modest Growth.The focus will be on the Bank of Canada's decision on interest rates on Wednesday amid rising consumer prices, followed February's gross domestic product print on Thursday.

Markets Weekly Outlook - Can earnings outweigh geopolitical headwinds & Central Bank decisions?.Global markets face a pivotal week defined by surging oil prices amid US-Iran tensions, record-high US equities driven by tech and earnings optimism, and critical central bank decisions. The Fed, ECB, and BoE grapple with the "balancing problem" of inflation vs.

PHP: BSP starts new hiking cycle – Commerzbank.PHP: BSP starts new hiking cycle – Commerzbank

USD/TWD: Rebound seen as fadeable – OCBC.USD/TWD: Rebound seen as fadeable – OCBC

PBoC: Steepening bias as industrial activity holds – DBS.PBoC: Steepening bias as industrial activity holds – DBS

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 24 Apr.The North American session leaned firmly toward a risk-on tone, with equities pushing higher, oil easing, and yields drifting modestly lower. The backdrop for the move was driven largely by renewed diplomatic momentum, as talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be gaining traction- with Pakistan playing a central role.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Opens Lower Targets.Natural gas confirmed a bearish breakdown, exposing lower Fibonacci targets as sellers maintain control and volatility risks increase heading into the new trading week.

Crude Oil trades above $95 ahead of weekend risk – WTI Technical analysis.WTI Oil pre-weekend Update: Crude hovers above $95 as traders brace for a high-risk weekend of US-Iran diplomatic talks. With the US enforcing a heavy Strait of Hormuz blockade and a massive 13 million bpd supply drought warping fundamentals, explore an in-depth technical analysis of WTI.

PHP: BSP tightening supports Peso but risks linger – OCBC.PHP: BSP tightening supports Peso but risks linger – OCBC

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Falls as Powell Probe Dropped, Warsh Boosts Cut Bets.The US Dollar Index slips as Powell probe ends and Warsh boosts rate cut bets, with markets pricing easier Fed policy and weaker dollar demand.

Meeting between US and Iran may not take place until Monday.There is a lot of jockeying for position the weekend. A trilateral meeting with US Iran and Pakistan will be considered only after Pakistan meets with Iran's Araghchi Meeting between USN Iran may not take place until Monday Witkoff and Kushner meanwhile will have separate talks with Pakistan on Sunday Iran's foreign ministry press release says: Iranian foreign minister will meet with high-ranking Pakistani officials to discuss the latest regional development as well as ongoing efforts for regional peace and stability Other sources close to Iran's supreme National Security Council have emphasized that no negotiations with the US are going to take place.

BoC: Cautious hold and two‑sided risks – TD Securities.BoC: Cautious hold and two‑sided risks – TD Securities

Global Central Banks decisions highlight next week's calendar: Market Volatility Ahead.The week ahead is stacked with global central bank decisions and top-tier inflation and growth data, making it one of the most important macro weeks of the month. The Bank of Japan kicks things off, but the focus quickly shifts to a midweek cluster of Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions, followed by a “super Thursday” featuring the BOE and ECB alongside U.S. GDP and Core PCE.

BoE: MPC holds vigilant stance – Rabobank.BoE: MPC holds vigilant stance – Rabobank

Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast as Inventory Builds Pressure Futures.Natural gas futures fall as a bearish storage report and rising inventory weaken the market. Forecast points lower with soft demand and warm weather in play.

Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar eases into weekend as markets eye central bank meetings.Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar eases into weekend as markets eye central bank meetings

Why the Oil Shock Isn't Just an Energy Story – It's an Everything Story.Oil shocks rarely stay in the Oil market. They move through freight rates, food prices, inflation expectations, central-bank policy, corporate margins and household confidence.

Germany: Growth hit by energy shock – Commerzbank.Germany: Growth hit by energy shock – Commerzbank

Treas Sec. Bessent: Growth-first strategy drives U.S. economic push.Scott Bessent in a WSJ interview speaks about the key economy and policy goals as he maneuvers through the Iranian war and other global economic hurdles.:

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count down to 407 from previous 410.United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count down to 407 from previous 410

USD: Inflation shock risk from Hormuz blockade – MUFG.USD: Inflation shock risk from Hormuz blockade – MUFG

U.S. consumer sentiment under pressure from war and rising oil prices.U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April as the war with Iran, higher energy prices and rising inflation expectations weighed on household confidence. Oil market disruptions in the Gulf and the near-total halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep pressure on crude prices.

WTI Oil declines as fragile Iran-US talks, weakening US sentiment temper upside.WTI Oil declines as fragile Iran-US talks, weakening US sentiment temper upside

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Coils Below 160—Breakout Setup Builds.USD/JPY continues to consolidate just below a key resistance zone after a strong advance, with price action reflecting a period of compression near recent highs. The pause in momentum suggests a potential buildup for a larger move, with the broader uptrend still intact for now.