USDJPY, USDCAD Price Forecast: Hormuz Deadline and US CPI Risks.Hormuz deadline and US CPI risks continue to dominate market sentiment, keeping dollar pairs, commodities, and equities highly reactive. Key scenarios include bullish breakout risks across crude oil and the US Dollar Index (DXY), as both hold near critical resistance levels ahead of the 8 PM Eastern Time deadline set by President Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and agree to negotiations within a ceasefire framework.

Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9 below forecasts (51.2) in March.Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9 below forecasts (51.2) in March

Germany March final services PMI 50.9 vs 51.2 prelim."The war in the Middle East has put the brakes on growth in the service sector. Higher prices at the fuel pumps and heightened levels of uncertainty have weighed on spending and caused business activity growth to slow sharply to its weakest for seven months in March.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Ascending 20-day EMA supports more upside.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Ascending 20-day EMA supports more upside

EUR/JPY appreciates on Yen weakness, nearing March highs at 184.75.EUR/JPY appreciates on Yen weakness, nearing March highs at 184.75

Regulatory risk restrains bankers from tapping rupee futures-forwards arbitrage.Pricing distortions stemming from the Indian ​central bank's recent foreign exchange ​curbs have opened up arbitrage between exchange-traded rupee futures ​and onshore forwards.

Italy March services PMI 48.8 vs 50.9 expected."The Italian services economy showed signs of fragility in March, as challenging external conditions due to war in the Middle East weighed on demand and activity. The sector contracted at the strongest pace in nearly two and-a-half years, marking just the fourth monthly fall in output seen over this period.

USD: De-escalation seen softening Dollar trend – OCBC.USD: De-escalation seen softening Dollar trend – OCBC

GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls broke the 211.50 resistance area.GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls broke the 211.50 resistance area

Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves increased to 721B in March from previous 710B.Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves increased to 721B in March from previous 710B

US Equity Markets Illustrate investors' Rather Agnostic Wait-and-See Bias.The long Easter weekend brought…: another deadline rescheduling by US president Trump for Iran to comply to a deal with the US. The US President wants such a deal to include freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to be concluded by 8 PM US ET today (02 00 AM CET tomorrow).

Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 0.7%.Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 0.7%

RBNZ: Seen on hold as war clouds outlook – Commerzbank.RBNZ: Seen on hold as war clouds outlook – Commerzbank

Crude Oil –07.04.2026.  Crude Oil met the targets of 102.50, 104.35 and closed toward the 107.70 zone. As we see over the Intraday chart, the advance is facing some pressures with the first support around 104.35-75, where as long as the market holds above it, the advance could expand towards 112.70 and above.

USD/JPY –07.04.2026.  The pair dropped towards the target and support of 157.25-65 and managed to rebound again. The market is still holding a trading zone with resistances around 160.20 and 161.95, where each resistance could lead to a correction toward the 157.25-65 zone.

Oil: Middle East tensions keep Brent elevated – Danske Bank.Oil: Middle East tensions keep Brent elevated – Danske Bank

Oil Nears $120 Point of No Return as Trump Deadline Looms and Hormuz “Toll Booth” Battle Decides Outcome.Oil is nearing a $120 breaking point as US President Donald Trump's Iran deadline looms, with markets increasingly focused on whether the US–Iran battle for Hormuz control will tip into full escalation. The urgency is rising as the “Power Plant Day” deadline approaches, with no clear resolution in sight.

ECB's Radev: It is too early to say if a rate hike is needed for April meeting.ECB's Radev: It is too early to say if a rate hike is needed for April meeting

AUD/JPY holds near 110.50 as BoJ uncertainty weighs on Japanese Yen.AUD/JPY holds near 110.50 as BoJ uncertainty weighs on Japanese Yen

Iran war may boost already rising support for euro in Bulgaria, central banker says.Bulgaria suffered only a small inflation bump when it adopted the euro on January 1 and public support ​for the common currency is now rising quickly, ‌with the war in Iran offering a potential boost, Central Bank Governor Dimitar Radev said.

Inflation scars risk quickly lifting expectations; ECB must be ready to act: policymaker.Euro zone inflation expectations are at risk of rising more quickly ​than in the past and the European Central Bank must be ready to raise interest rates swiftly if ‌signs of persistent price pressures emerge, ECB policymaker Dimitar Radev said.

WTI Price Forecast: Sits near $105.50; eyes four-week top as Trump's Iran deadline looms.WTI Price Forecast: Sits near $105.50; eyes four-week top as Trump's Iran deadline looms

Morning Bid: A breakthrough deal or a crude awakening?.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee:

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady but maintains bullish bias above 100-day EMA support.EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady but maintains bullish bias above 100-day EMA support

WTI Crude Oil Eyes Major Breakout, Surge Could Ignite Powerful Rally.WTI Crude Oil prices started a fresh increase above $98 and $100 against the US Dollar. The price cleared many hurdles near $102 to re-enter bullish zone.

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Oil ticked higher.Oil pushes higher toward USD 115/bbl as Trump deadline looms • Middle East escalation intensifies with strikes across Iran, Saudi, Israel • Missile activity hits key Saudi industrial hub at Jubail • US signals limited appetite for further deadline extensions • Iran response seen as “tough” but still a negotiating tactic • Pentagon briefing cancelled, adding to uncertainty • USD firms modestly; FX ranges relatively contained

Why India's central bank is fighting to keep the rupee above 93.The Indian rupee was expected to trade in a narrow range around 93 to the dollar on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India continued to support the currency following a period of sharp volatility that had driven it to record lows. The central bank's intervention has provided a floor, but geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices are keeping any meaningful recovery in check.

Oil Price Forecast: WTI Near $120 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Drive Breakout.Oil prices move higher as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupt global supply and push risk premiums into the market, while strong technical momentum keeps the outlook bullish with upside targets coming into focus.

Rupee caught in tug-of-war between RBI-led unwinding, Trump's Iran deadline.The Indian rupee on Tuesday will likely trade in a narrow range near 93 per dollar, supported by the central ​bank-spurred unwinding of arbitrage positions, while lingering risks of a ‌further flare-up in the Iran war are expected to cap upside.

Pound Sterling weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar.Pound Sterling weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar