USD: Capital reallocation pressures Dollar outlook – Nordea.USD: Capital reallocation pressures Dollar outlook – Nordea

Euro area trade balance moves back to surplus in February just before US-Iran conflict.Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.

EU Exports to US Drop 26.4% YoY in February, Down 16.1% to China.Eurozone trade surplus narrowed sharply in February, with the goods balance falling to EUR 11.5B from EUR23.1B a year earlier, as exports declined significantly. Total exports dropped by -6.7% yoy to EUR 232.4B.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Sinks to $93 on Trump Peace Hopes – Is $87 the Next Floor?.WTI Crude (USOIL) drops 1.5% to $93.00 as President Trump's peace deal optimism cools the war premium. Discover why the $87.00 trendline is the ultimate must-hold floor.

Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. registered at €11.5B, below expectations (€11.7B) in February.Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. registered at €11.5B, below expectations (€11.7B) in February

French finance minister calls for euro-based stablecoins.French Finance Minister Roland Lescure on Friday said Europe needed more euro-based stablecoins and ​encouraged the bloc's banks to explore tokenised ‌deposits.

Australian Dollar Pulls Back from Highs on Weaker Data.The Australian dollar is undergoing a corrective decline after reaching recent highs, with the current move driven by market reaction to newly released macroeconomic data. Earlier gains in AUD were supported by improving global risk sentiment and steady demand for commodity-linked currencies.

USD/JPY Builds Positioning Ahead of Signals from the Bank of Japan.USD/JPY dynamics continue to be driven by the persistent yield gap between US and Japanese government bonds. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a relatively hawkish stance and keeping rates elevated as of April 2026, the Bank of Japan remains extremely cautious in its path towards policy normalisation.

USD/JPY: Intervention threat lingers near 160 – Societe Generale.USD/JPY: Intervention threat lingers near 160 – Societe Generale

Japanese Yen underperforms as BoJ's Ueda warns of stagflation risks.Japanese Yen underperforms as BoJ's Ueda warns of stagflation risks

Losses by the Dollar as Focus on Diplomacy Continues.Expectations of a second round of talks between the USA and Iran have reduced demand for the US dollar as a haven.

Italy Trade Balance EU increased to €-0.652B in February from previous €-1.138B.Italy Trade Balance EU increased to €-0.652B in February from previous €-1.138B

Warsh, war and worsening conditions?.Financial markets are in a buoyant mood as U.S. President Donald Trump signals confidence that the war in Iran will end soon, with talks probably on the cards again this weekend.

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains below 98.50 near nine-day EMA.US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains below 98.50 near nine-day EMA

Oil: Current shock less damaging than 1970s – Commerzbank.Oil: Current shock less damaging than 1970s – Commerzbank

USD: Diversification hinge for Q2 flows – BNY.USD: Diversification hinge for Q2 flows – BNY

GBP/JPY surrenders modest intraday gains; holds above 215.00 amid mixed cues.GBP/JPY surrenders modest intraday gains; holds above 215.00 amid mixed cues

Canadian Dollar strengthens ahead of Canadian CPI inflation release.Canadian Dollar strengthens ahead of Canadian CPI inflation release

Oil: Conflict risks and Strait disruption – Rabobank.Oil: Conflict risks and Strait disruption – Rabobank

Markets Shift from Chasing to Waiting Ahead of Key US-Iran Talks Weekend.The market narrative is shifting from chasing the risk rally to waiting for confirmation. After a sustained push higher driven by optimism around US-Iran negotiations, investors are becoming more cautious ahead of a critical weekend.

WTI holds losses near $89.50 ahead of potential US-Iran further talks.WTI holds losses near $89.50 ahead of potential US-Iran further talks

What are the main event for today?.In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian and Eurozone trade balances which are not going to change anything for the ECB and won't be market-moving.

Pound Sterling softens as focus shifts to possible US–Iran negotiations.Pound Sterling softens as focus shifts to possible US–Iran negotiations

ECB Expected to Hold Rates in April.The potential for talks between the US and Iran over the weekend to reach an agreement will be in focus, as a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was reached yesterday. We expect the two sides will agree on an extension to the temporary ceasefire, while a more permanent peace deal will take more time.

IEA Chief Birol warns of higher energy prices if Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.IEA Chief Birol warns of higher energy prices if Strait of Hormuz is not reopened

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs to mid-159.00s; remains confined in a familiar range.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs to mid-159.00s; remains confined in a familiar range

AUD/JPY gains traction above 114.00 as RBA hike bets grow.AUD/JPY gains traction above 114.00 as RBA hike bets grow

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Reaches fresh record highs near 188.00.EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Reaches fresh record highs near 188.00

As commodities reshape geopolitics, currency pecking order gets a reset.The war in the Middle East is the latest reminder of how commodities are reshaping the geopolitical landscape, leaving currencies from Norway, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand well placed to outperform larger rivals.

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Subdued trade heading into another nervy weekend.Iranian officials reiterated the need for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while unverified reports suggested Tehran could begin “initial steps” toward blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait from midday tomorrow. That latter development, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation risk for global trade and energy flows, though markets treated it cautiously given the lack of verification.