Oil Tests 120, USD/JPY 160, EUR/USD Bear Pennant – US Dollar Price Action Setups.It's an interesting backdrop as we go deeper into an important week. Later this week US inflation data is expected to show the initial impact of higher energy prices.

WTI remains volatile ahead of Trump's Iran deadline.WTI remains volatile ahead of Trump's Iran deadline

TRY: Fragile as oil shock worsens outlook – Commerzbank.TRY: Fragile as oil shock worsens outlook – Commerzbank

The US treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.897%.High-yield 3.897% WI level at the time of the auction 3.909% tail of -1.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of -0.3 basis points . Bid to cover 2.68X vs 6 auction average of 2.66X Dealers 13.28% versus 6 auction average of 12.3%.

United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.897% vs 3.579%.United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.897% vs 3.579%

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast:Climbs as ceasefire hopes in the Mid-East battle fresh fears.Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast:Climbs as ceasefire hopes in the Mid-East battle fresh fears

U.S. Treasury to auction $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour.The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will compared to the 6 auction average for the major components.

U.S. Dollar Retreats As Durable Goods Orders Miss Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.Forex traders also focus on Trump's threats against Iran and wait for news from the Middle East.

White House: Only the President knows on Iran negotiations (but it is hard to ignore).The White House says, only the president knows on Iran negotiations. The Iranian regime has until 8 PM to make a deal.

Deal, delay or strike? Investors on edge as Trump's Iran deadline nears.Global markets have entered a period of heightened uncertainty ahead of a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Iran, with investors weighing various outcomes ranging from a ceasefire to renewed military escalation and their implications for oil, currencies and risky assets.

USD/JPY nears 160 as Trump hints at nuclear war.USD/JPY nears 160 as Trump hints at nuclear war

Chile's peso leads LatAm FX losses as Mideast tensions pressure regional assets.Chile's peso, the worst-performing Latin American currency since the Middle East conflict began, led losses among regional ​currencies on Tuesday despite the country posting a wider-than-expected trade surplus in March.

World Bank says Nigerian economy to grow in 2026 but Iran war lifts inflation.Nigeria's economy is resilient and set to grow in the first half of 2026 despite the Iran war, the World Bank said on Tuesday, ​adding that rising fuel costs and persistently high inflation risk squeezing incomes and ‌slowing poverty reduction.

US: Oil shock complicates Fed path – MUFG.US: Oil shock complicates Fed path – MUFG

10 Hours to $150 Oil? The looming deadline threatening the Strait of Hormuz.Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have peaked with a deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports of strikes on Kharg Island and a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait risk a massive oil supply shock, potentially driving crude prices toward $150/bbl.

Oil: Supply shock supports $90–100 well into 2027 – TD Securities.Oil: Supply shock supports $90–100 well into 2027 – TD Securities

Iran cuts off direct communications with US – WSJ.Iran cuts off direct communications with US – WSJ

SEK: Growth outlook limits downside – Societe Generale.SEK: Growth outlook limits downside – Societe Generale

New Zealand GDT Price Index fell from previous 0.1% to -3.4%.New Zealand GDT Price Index fell from previous 0.1% to -3.4%

NZD: RBNZ seen on hold with dovish tone – ING.NZD: RBNZ seen on hold with dovish tone – ING

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Struggle at Lows.Natural gas continues to look weak in general, as the season for demand is past us. Remember, this is an American contract, so disruptions in the Middle East will have limited influence.

Hot money increasingly dominates emerging markets financing, raising risks, IMF says.Emerging market ‌nations now get the bulk of their foreign financing from the likes of hedge funds, pension funds and insurers, leaving them vulnerable to rapid outflows during crises, the International Monetary Fund said in a report.

United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) registered at 42.8, below expectations (48.1) in April.United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) registered at 42.8, below expectations (48.1) in April

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Continues to Jump on Headlines.Crude oil continues to rally on the latest headlines, as the attacks on Kharg Island have traders nervous.

Fed's Williams Sees No Policy Shift Despite Oil-Driven Inflation Risks.New York Fed President John Williams signaled that the Fed could remain in a wait-and-see stance, even as higher energy prices from the Iran conflict are expected to push headline inflation higher. Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Williams said “the story hasn't changed very much,” emphasizing that underlying inflation dynamics remain broadly stable despite the oil-driven headline surge.

GBP/JPY edges higher as rising Oil prices weigh on Japan's economic outlook.GBP/JPY edges higher as rising Oil prices weigh on Japan's economic outlook

Central Banks Risk Making a Mistake.The US dollar has been fluctuating within a 0.5% range since the end of last week amid conflicting signals regarding the situation in the Middle East. On the one hand, Iran has rejected mediators' proposal for a 45-day ceasefire with the US, which marked a clear escalation and triggered a rise in Brent prices and a strengthening of the greenback.

ECB: Front-loaded hikes on the horizon - Nordea.ECB: Front-loaded hikes on the horizon - Nordea

SEK: Softer inflation may delay Riksbank hikes – TD Securities.SEK: Softer inflation may delay Riksbank hikes – TD Securities

Hormuz Deadline Looms as IMF Warns Oil Shock Drives All Roads to Stagflation.The global financial markets are treading water as the Hormuz reopening deadline looms, with U.S. Donald Trump warning of severe escalation if Iran does not comply. The mood across financial markets is one of “calculated dread,” as investors await a decisive signal while avoiding aggressive positioning.