To be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking at the US Senate.Federal Reserve Chairman-elect Kevin Warsh faces the Senate for his critical confirmation hearing, with central bank independence taking center stage. As markets await a comprehensive afternoon recap of his four-year policy outlook, explore a 1-hour technical analysis of the USD to gauge immediate intraday reactions.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Waits for Talks to End.The crude oil markets seem to be waiting for the talks in Islamabad to conclude, in order to price in the next move.

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Struggle in the US.Natural gas continues to look for a catalyst to get moving, with a serious lack of demand being a major problem. This is typical for this time of year in this asset.

Trump weighs UAE currency swap as war risks test Gulf economy.US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Washington is considering financial support measures for the United Arab Emirates, including a potential currency swap arrangement, as geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict raise economic risks across the Gulf region. Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Trump confirmed that discussions around a swap line were underway.

United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) down to -1.1% in March from previous -0.8%.United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) down to -1.1% in March from previous -0.8%

United States Business Inventories below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (-1.1%).United States Business Inventories below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (-1.1%)

United States Business Inventories above expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.4%).United States Business Inventories above expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

Trump says currency swap with UAE is under consideration.President Trump said ​on Tuesday that the United States was considering helping the ‌United Arab Emirates financially and a currency swap with the Middle East nation was under consideration.

Oil: Market optimism underprices supply risks – ING.Oil: Market optimism underprices supply risks – ING

United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 6.7% in April 17 from previous 7%.United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 6.7% in April 17 from previous 7%

US Retail Sales rise 1.7% in March vs. 1.4% expected.US Retail Sales rise 1.7% in March vs. 1.4% expected

Focus Shifts to Warsh's Fed Testimony and Policy Pillars as Markets Await US–Iran Clarity.No confirmation on US–Iran talks means no conviction in markets—for now. The focus shifts to Kevin Warsh's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 14:00 GMT.

US Retail Sales Surge 1.7% mom in March, Core Spending Signals Resilient Demand.US retail sales rose 1.7% mom to USD 752.1B in March, beating expectations of 1.3% mom and pointing to stronger-than-anticipated consumer demand. Ex-auto sales climbed 1.9% mom to USD 612.4B, also above forecasts of 1.3% mom.

Fed: Warsh hearing clouds leadership timing – BNY.Fed: Warsh hearing clouds leadership timing – BNY

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 54.8K (March 28) vs 39K.United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 54.8K (March 28) vs 39K

Copper: Energy costs and supply shape outlook – ING.Copper: Energy costs and supply shape outlook – ING

Pound Sterling trades mixed ahead of Warsh's testimony, UK CPI data.Pound Sterling trades mixed ahead of Warsh's testimony, UK CPI data

Dollar Index: Trades Within Extended Range as Investors Await Fresh Direction Signals.The Dollar was firmer in Asian / European trading on Tuesday and partially recover Monday's losses (down 0.36% for the day), but near-term action remains within the boundaries of recent congestion ($97.40/$98.22) as traders await fresh direction signals, mainly from the Middle East peace talks.

USD: Strong retail sales and Fed focus – TD Securities.USD: Strong retail sales and Fed focus – TD Securities

USD/JPY bounces back above 159.00 but remains within previous ranges.USD/JPY bounces back above 159.00 but remains within previous ranges

investingLive European FX news wrap: UK unemployment drops, BoJ set to stand pat in April.The main highlight in the session war the UK jobs report. The data showed a meaningful drop in the unemployment rate, lower than expected job gains and an easing in wage growth (although the data was higher than forecasts).

BoJ: Hike call postponed to June – Danske Bank.BoJ: Hike call postponed to June – Danske Bank

ECB's de Guindos Says ‘Keep a Cool Head' as Energy Prices Drive Inflation Uncertainty.ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos signaled a cautious approach ahead of next week's policy meeting, emphasizing the need to assess whether higher energy costs are feeding into broader inflation. Speaking in Spain, he stressed that policymakers must “keep a cool head” amid what he described as “tremendous uncertainty.

Euro Has Closed the Gap But is in No Hurry to Rise.EURUSD managed to close the gap down formed at the market open on Monday but is in no hurry to move higher. Investors prefer to wait for Iran's participation in talks with the US and the outcome of those discussions.

Rupee falls, tracking Asian peers; partial rollback of RBI FX curbs weighs.The Indian rupee logged its ​steepest fall in a ​week on Tuesday, tracking weakness in most regional ​peers and also weighed down by the partial rollback of measures the central bank had undertaken recently to support the strained South Asian ‌currency.

Crude Oil –21.04.2026.  Crude Oil remains volatile on the so called ceasefire between Iran and US-Israeli aggression before the market moved higher with an upward price gap after the US broke the ceasefire. As we see from the chart, the market is facing resistance around 92.35 which could give some space for a trading zone with support […]

USD/JPY –21.04.2026.  The pair managed again to hit another correction while still facing the support zone of 157.25-65, which could hold prices inside this trading zone toward resistances 160.20 or 161.95. Above 161.95 the market could enter a new uptrend wave with first target toward 163.80.

Crude oil forecast: Extension of ceasefire likely – if US-Iran meeting takes place.Market reaction has been relatively mild to the change in the tone we have seen since Friday between the two sides. With the ceasefire deadline fast approaching, the oil market is holding steady, ready to potentially resume higher on any signs of a major re-escalation.

Chart alert: Bullish flag formation in Copper (XCU/USD) as 2nd US-Iran peace talks loom.Copper (XCU/USD) remains supported after a 17% rally from March lows, driven by improving risk sentiment amid US–Iran ceasefire optimism. Price action is consolidating in a bullish flag pattern, suggesting potential continuation higher.

Fed: Warsh plans seen curve-steepening – Commerzbank.Fed: Warsh plans seen curve-steepening – Commerzbank