China’s official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in August 2025 from July's 8-month low of 50.1, in line with market consensus.

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.4 in August 2025 from July’s three-month low of 49.3, falling short of market expectations of 49.5 and marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. Output grew for the fourth straight month and at the fastest pace since March (50.8 vs. 50.5 in July), while purchasing activity rebounded, rising at the strongest rate in five months. Still, demand conditions remained weak, highlighted by further drops in new orders (49.5 vs. 49.4), and foreign sales (47.2 vs. 47.1). Also, a decline in employment (47.9 vs. 48.0) persisted. Meantime, supplier delivery times improved slightly (50.5 vs. 50.3), the highest since February. On prices, input costs accelerated to their highest level since October 2024, while a decline in selling prices slowed to the weakest pace in ten months. Looking ahead, business confidence strengthened to a six-month high (50.5 vs. 50.3).

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.5 in August 2025 from July’s three-month low of 50.2, signaling modest expansion in overall business activity. The services sector rebounded after slipping to an eight-month low in July, while the manufacturing sector remained in contraction but at a slightly slower pace.

China Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) 49.4 (expected 49.5) Services 50.3 (expected 50.3).These Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). For August 2025: Manufacturing PMI 49.4 expected 49.5, prior 49.3 Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.3 expected 50.3, prior 50.1 Composite 50.5 prior 50.2 more to come --- Earlier big news: US Federal Appeals court rules that most of Trump's tariffs are illegal The legal fight is not over (see the post) but perhaps China will just wait it out on tariffs.

Rosneft net income drops 68% in first half, blames OPEC for weak oil prices.The chief executive of Russia's Rosneft said net income sank more than 68% to 245 billion roubles ($3 billion) in the first half due to weak oil prices that were dragged down by production hikes by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC states.

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Slips Below 50-Day MA as Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 87% on PCE Data.US dollar slips below 50-day average as core PCE hits 2.9% and rate cut bets rise. Market watches Fed and political pressure for next move.

Rupee bleeds red to a new low on greenback demand, slumps against Chinese yuan too.The Indian rupee hit a record low of 88.31 per dollar before closing at 88.19, pressured by U.S. tariff concerns, weak equity inflows, and strong dollar demand. RBI intervention likely prevented deeper losses, but sentiment remains fragile.

The Weekly Bottom Line: U.S. – President Trumps Applies Further Pressure on Fed.Real GDP growth for the second quarter was revised higher to 3.3%, with most of the upward revision stemming from stronger business investment.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Gas Extends Recovery, Targets Align at $3.15–$3.19 Zone.Natural gas strengthened Friday, holding above $2.96 and reclaiming key levels. A bullish wedge breakout and AVWAP recovery support further upside toward $3.15–$3.19.

The Ibovespa rose 0.3% to close at 141,422 on Friday, a fresh record that pushed August gains to 6.3% as investors parsed US inflation and domestic political developments. US PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, came in as expected with a 2.6% year-on-year rise, a print that firmed market bets on a September cut and lifted global risk appetite. At home President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s comments on the federal police probe into alleged fuel-sector money-laundering and his measured stance on the US tariff spat, saying he preferred negotiation over immediate reciprocity, reduced policy-shock risk for listed refiners and retailers. Economically, gross public debt ticked up to 77.6% of GDP in July from 76.6% in June, underscoring fiscal constraints even as falling local rate risk helps equity valuations. On the tape Petrobras gained 0.4%, Vale 0.5%, Ambev 0.8%, Banco do Brasil 1.6%, Eletrobras 1.3% and Santander 0.9%.

US stocks ended lower on Friday as the S&P 500 retreated from from record highs, amid ongoing signs of persistent inflation in the US economy. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.2%, and the Dow lost 92 points, or 0.2%. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.9% year-over-year in July, matching expectations but marking the fastest increase since February. Tech and AI-related shares pressured the market, with Nvidia down 3.4% and Dell falling 8.9% due to competition and higher costs for AI products. Alibaba surged 12.9% on strong cloud computing results, while Caterpillar (-3.6%) and Marvell (-18.6%) declined on tariff and revenue concerns. Despite Friday’s losses, the S&P 500 and Dow recorded their fourth consecutive month of gains, up 2% and 3% respectively, and the Nasdaq posted a fifth straight monthly rise, adding 1%. Markets will be closed Monday in observance of Labor Day.

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% to close at a fresh record of 28,565 on Friday and finished August up about 4.8% as a clean finish to big bank earnings and a miners rally combined to push the index higher. Major lenders including RBC and TD surprised with materially lower loan loss provisions and stronger capital markets and fee income which tightened credit spreads, freed capital for buybacks and dividends, and drew flows back into financials where index weight is concentrated. That corporate tailwind met a weaker macro backdrop after Statistics Canada reported Q2 real GDP contracted 0.4% quarter on quarter driven by export and business investment weakness, a print that pushed markets to price earlier Bank of Canada easing and compressed discount rates for rate sensitive equities. At the same time large mining names outperformed as gold raced to new highs. Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, Barrick Mining, and Franco-Nevada added between 1.2% and 3.4%.

investingLive Americas FX news wrap: Core PCE in line, Alibaba develops new AI chips.It's been a pretty quiet session on the data and news side, but a lively one on the markets front. The US PCE was of course the main highlight of the day and the data came in line with expectations across the board.

Wheat futures rose above $5.15 per bushel, as traders adjusted their positions before the long weekend, which added strength to the market. Despite pressure from abundant Northern Hemisphere harvests and improved crop outlooks in Argentina and Australia, wheat prices still managed to gain. Elsewhere, Russia has ramped up wheat exports after a slow start, shipping over 3 million tons in August, including large volumes to Egypt. In Poland, wet weather has lowered harvest quality, with 30% expected as feed grade, yet a 5 million-ton milling wheat export surplus is projected from a 13.5 million-ton harvest. Strong demand for Polish feed wheat, such as a 55K-ton shipment to Vietnam, shows lower-grade supplies are moving. While Poland has enough milling wheat for domestic and export needs, traders worry about where the surplus will go amid stiff competition from Black Sea exporters.

Fed's Daly repeats that it will soon be time to recalibrate policy.It's funny how they avoid using the word "transitory". Anyway, Fed's Daly is just repeating that she expects the tariff-driven inflation to be short-lived and therefore favours lowering interest rates to help the labour market which in her view is slowing.

US natural gas futures rose over 2% to $3/MMBtu, marking a 7% gain for the week, supported by firming LNG feedgas flows and a below-average inventory build that reduced the storage surplus to its lowest level since the first week of June. Analysts noted that despite this week’s rise, weather patterns over the next 15 days remain largely bearish, limiting further near-term gains. The impact of summer heat is expected to diminish over time, which could temper future price momentum. The tight storage levels, however, continue to underpin market sentiment, keeping prices supported. Traders are closely monitoring LNG exports, which have provided an additional source of demand for US gas. Overall, the combination of stronger exports and reduced inventories contributed to a bullish weekly performance.

Brent crude futures dropped 0.7% to settle at $68.1 per barrel on Friday, as traders weighed weaker US demand and the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Attention is also on next week’s OPEC+ meeting, with accelerated output increases from the group raising the global supply outlook. However, these supply gains have yet to fully reach the US market, where the summer driving season is ending, fueling concerns over demand. Prices had risen earlier in the week following Ukrainian attacks on Russian export terminals, but reports of potential ceasefire talks eased some of that pressure. US crude inventories showed larger-than-expected draws, indicating ongoing demand in industrial and freight sectors. Geopolitical factors, including India’s continued purchases of Russian oil despite US tariff threats, remain under close scrutiny. Despite Friday’s decline, Brent posted its second consecutive weekly gain, though the benchmark recorded its first monthly drop in four months.

WTI crude oil futures fell 0.9% to settle at $64 per barrel on Friday, as traders weighed weaker US demand and the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Attention is also on next week’s OPEC+ meeting, with accelerated output increases from the group raising the global supply outlook. However, these supply gains have yet to fully reach the US market, where the summer driving season is ending, fueling concerns over demand. Prices had risen earlier in the week following Ukrainian attacks on Russian export terminals, but reports of potential ceasefire talks eased some of that pressure. US crude inventories showed larger-than-expected draws, indicating ongoing demand in industrial and freight sectors. Geopolitical factors, including India’s continued purchases of Russian oil despite US tariff threats, remain under close scrutiny. The US benchmark posted its second consecutive weekly gain, although the benchmark fell about 7% over the month, marking its first monthly drop in four months.

Arabica coffee futures approached $3.95 per pound, extending recent gains as US roasters rushed to secure supplies amid tighter availability. A decline in exchange stocks added to supply concerns, reinforcing upward pressure on prices. Dry weather in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, heightened supply risks and supported the market. Stronger demand from roasters ahead of the peak consumption season also contributed to the price increase. Meanwhile, global inventories remained tight, with certified ICE stocks hovering near multi-year lows. The combination of limited supply and steady demand kept market sentiment firm. Adding to the bullish tone, US tariffs on Brazilian imports have disrupted trade flows, further underpinning prices.

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Pulls Back Amid Demand Concerns.Oil traders focus on the end of the summer driving season.

Uruguay posted a trade surplus of $88.8 million in July 2025, reversing a $0.095 million gap in the same month a year earlier. Exports rose 13.1% year-on-year to $1.107 billion, led by an 11.9% increase in primary goods and a 12.6% gain in manufactured products, while utility-related exports surged 93.8%. Imports grew 4.1% to $1.018 billion, supported by a 9.6% rise in consumer goods and a 14.6% increase in capital goods, though intermediate goods fell 3.3%.

Could a 50bps Fed Rate Cut Push the Dollar to New Lows Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty?.The age of Trump 2.0 has brought plenty of challenges and opportunities to the world of forex in 2025. Don't expect the rollercoaster to slow down any time soon.

US stocks fell in the afternoon trading as investors took profits following a strong week that saw the S&P 500 reach record highs, amid signs that inflationary pressures remain persistent in the US economy. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.4%, and the Dow slipped 0.4%.Technology shares leading the retreat, with Nvidia dropping 3.8% as cautious guidance on China sales weighed on sentiment, while Dell slumped 8.6% after disappointing forecasts. Inflation remained in focus as the Fed’s preferred gauge, the core PCE index, rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, the highest since February and above the central bank’s target. Additional pressure came from renewed tariff concerns, with Caterpillar warning of up to $1.8 billion in related costs this year. Despite Friday’s pullback, all three indexes remained on track to close August with solid monthly gains, extending their longest winning streak in more than a year.

Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE for July +1.9% vs +3.4% prior.The 1 month annualised rate is very volatile, so don't mistake that for inflation coming down. The 6 month and 12 month annualised rates are a better gauge of the trend.

Platinum increased to 1367.00 USD/t.oz, the highest since July 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Platinum gained 4.47%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 47.61%.

US gasoline futures fell below $2 per gallon, hitting early-April lows as ample supply and moderating demand weighed on the market. Prices eased on expectations of reduced US fuel consumption with the end of the summer driving season after Labor Day, compounded by concerns of a global glut after the IEA projected supply will outpace demand in the coming quarters and OPEC+ moved to restore idled capacity. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories, which had briefly tightened on pre-holiday demand surges, have since stabilized, while refinery utilization remains strong, ensuring steady fuel availability. With demand cooling after the August peak and additional crude output anticipated from OPEC+, the supply-demand balance has shifted decisively in favor of lower pump prices.

Cotton futures eased toward 65 cents per pound, heading for a 1.9% weekly loss as demand concerns weighed on the market following the US decision to impose a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods effective August 27. The move, linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil, raises duties on Indian garments to 50% above the standard MFN rate, likely curbing textile exports to the US and dampening downstream demand for raw cotton. To support its domestic industry, India extended its duty-free cotton import window until December 31, 2025, ahead of the new marketing year beginning October 1. Additional pressure came from weaker oil prices, which make polyester a cheaper substitute for textile producers. On the trade front, USDA data showed weekly net sales of 179,300 running bales for 2025/26, with shipments of 112,700 bales largely destined for Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Mexico, and Turkey.

U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Traders React To PCE Price Index Report: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency is under pressure as traders shrug off inflation worries and bet on dovish Fed.

Judge did not rule on the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook today.The Judge asked more time to preserve the status quo while she considers the merits of the legal fight. The Fed today said in a court filing that it takes no position in the lawsuit but that it wants a "prompt ruling" to remove "the existing cloud of uncertainty".

Canola futures eased past CAD 630 per tonne, reaching early-April lows largely due to a perfect storm of rising supply expectations and collapsed export demand. Agriculture Canada raised its 2025-26 canola production estimate to 20.10 million tonnes, up nearly 13% from July’s forecast, pushing total supply to about 21.38 Mt and boosting projected carry-out stocks by about 1.2 Mt compared to last month. At the same time, China slapped preliminary anti-dumping duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed, on top of existing heft tariffs on canola oil and meal, effectively shutting off nearly C$5 billion in annual exports. To compound the downside, bearish spillover from a softening U.S. soy complex, especially weaker soybean oil tied to reduced biofuel demand after exemptions, has dragged down related vegetable oils, putting further pressure on canola.