Crude Oil Analysis: WTI Returns to 2025 Lows Amid Optimism Over Peace Negotiations.WTI crude has accumulated four consecutive sessions of declines, with a short-term depreciation of more than 6%. Selling pressure remains firm, partly due to optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to the removal of key economic sanctions and allow a larger flow of Russian crude back into the market.

FX Today: Soft US data maintains US Dollar under pressure.FX Today: Soft US data maintains US Dollar under pressure

Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.3%, below expectations (3.5%) in 3Q.Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.3%, below expectations (3.5%) in 3Q

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Markets Test Multi-Year Lows.Oil markets are losing ground amid oversupply concerns.

USD/JPY declines as Yen strengthens on BoJ hike bets and weak US jobs data.USD/JPY declines as Yen strengthens on BoJ hike bets and weak US jobs data

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Falls as Weak Jobs Data and Lower Yields Pressure Greenback.DXY weakens as slipping U.S. yields and mixed jobs data fuel selling pressure, with key support levels in focus and a bearish outlook building for the Dollar Index.

Bank of Japan Preview.Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers are set to raise rates 25 bps this week, a now consensus view but a stance we took well before financial markets fully priced tighter BoJ monetary policy. Markets fully digesting a BoJ December rate hike likely means the Japanese yen will fall short of hitting our YE-2025 USDJPY target; however, no element of surprise also means emerging market currencies should be more protected and not experience much post-hike volatility, a different dynamic relative to last year's BoJ August hike that injected volatility across many high-yielding emerging currencies as the yen funded carry trade unwound.

U.S. Dollar Retreats As Unemployment Rate Jumps to 4.6%: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency remains under pressure as traders focus on the situation in the job market.

US Dollar: Unemployment Jumps to 4.6% as Jobs Report Sparks Recession Talk.The latest US jobs report raised fresh concerns about the labour market after unemployment jumped to 4.6 percent, its highest level in four years. The delayed release was unusual in both timing and content, as it combined incomplete October data with a full November report following disruption caused by the government shutdown.

Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP Gains While EUR Slips on Disappointing PMIs.The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate rallied from a 13-day low on Tuesday as forecast-beating UK data lifted Sterling. Latest — Exchange Rates:Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.13934 (+0.09%)Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.34165 (+0.28%)Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.17757 (+0.19%) DAILY RECAP: The Pound (GBP) strengthened on Tuesday, with the.

Oil bears regain control as Ukraine peace hopes fuel selloff, WTI eyes 50.WTI crude extended its selloff sharply today, breaking to the lowest level since early 2021 and deepening one of its worst annual performances in years. The US benchmark is now down roughly 22% for the year, marking its weakest showing since 2018.

Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Plummets.Natural gas prices are plunging on warmer weather forecasts, with focus on a potential move toward the $3.60 area. Despite heavy selling, patience is emphasized due to seasonal bullish risks and weather-driven volatility.

US business inventories for September 0.2% versus 0.1% estimate.The chart above shows the inventory to sales ratio which is moving lower but still steady. There is nothing concerning regarding the ratio numbers.

Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Oil Continues to Fall Apart on Tuesday.Oil prices continue to weaken, with both WTI and Brent breaking key technical levels. Attention is focused on whether major psychological support zones can hold amid very weak demand and persistent selling pressure.

US PMIs point to broad-based cooling despite solid 2.5% annualized Q4 Growth.US PMI readings eased across the board in December, signaling that the “recent economic growth spurt is losing momentum”. PMI Manufacturing slipped from 52.2 to 51.8, while PMI Services fell more sharply from 54.1 to 52.9.

S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI December 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate.The flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI data for December is out and shows weakness: prior month manufacturing 52.2 manufacturing flash PMI 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate services PMI flash 52.9 versus 54.0 estimate. Prior month 54.1.

US: Payrolls rise 64k in November, But Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Ticks Higher to 4.6% .Non-farm employment rose 64k in November, slightly ahead of the consensus forecast in Bloomberg (50k). November's reading marked an uptick in hiring from October (also reported this morning), where job growth fell by 105k.

Natural Gas News: Weather Models Slash Demand Outlook, Futures Slide on Heavy Selling.Natural gas futures slide as warm weather forecasts and record production pressure the market. Bears hold control unless colder trends emerge soon.

US: Retail Sales Flat, Surprisingly Strong Core Sales in October.The surprise came as the “control group”, which excludes autos, gasoline and building supplies, rebounded in October (+0.8% m/m). Strength was seen at furniture (+2.3%), sporting goods (1.9%), non-store retailers (1.8%), miscellaneous store retailers (+1.5%) and clothing and accessories stores (-0.9%).

NFP Shock Slams Dollar, March Fed Cut Now More Likely Than Not.Dollar came under broad pressure in early US trade after delayed employment data confirmed a deeper-than-expected loss of momentum in the labor market. The October payrolls collapse was the key shock.

US Retail Sales virtually unchanged at $732.6 billion in October.US Retail Sales virtually unchanged at $732.6 billion in October

US NFP falls -105k in October, overshadows November bounce.US labor market data for October and November painted a clear picture of weakness. Payrolls plunged by -105k in October, the sharpest monthly decline since late 2020.

US Retail sales for October rises by 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate.When on schedule (today's data is from October) US retail sales offer one of the clearest, most timely reads on consumer demand, which drives roughly two-thirds of overall US economic activity. Because the data are released monthly and feed directly into GDP calculations, markets often use the report to reassess growth momentum, Fed policy expectations, and near-term direction for yields, equities, and the US dollar.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16.25K (November 29) vs 4.75K.United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16.25K (November 29) vs 4.75K

Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Break Support as Oil Demand Weakens — Bearish Analysis.WTI crude oil breaks key support as futures slide below $60. Weak oil demand, China data, and oversupply fears drive a bearish oil outlook.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Expect new Fed chair in early January.US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, spoke in a Fox Business interview and commented on the upcoming Fed chair announcement and the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. Both decisions are expected in early January.

investingLive European FX news wrap: UK jobs data soft but wages remain high, NFP next.The main highlight of the session was the UK labour market report. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.1% vs 5.0% prior as expected with payrolls declining once again.

Chinese Crude Oil Processing Edges Up 4% Y/Y in November – Commerzbank.Chinese Crude Oil Processing Edges Up 4% Y/Y in November – Commerzbank

USD trades heavy ahead of November NFP release – BBH.USD trades heavy ahead of November NFP release – BBH

Morning Bid: Jobs news, AI blues and falling oil.What matters in U.S. and global markets today