Natural Gas Price Forecast: Explosive Spike to $5.50 – Pullback Risk Rising.Natural gas spiked to a new trend high of $5.50 Friday, clearing both the 200% channel extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci at $5.28 while confirming the long-term breakout above $4.90 with the highest weekly close since early-December 2022.

USD/JPY Outlook: The Yen Attempts to Gain Ground Amid a Possible BOJ Policy Shift.Over the past five trading sessions, USD/JPY has accumulated a decline of more than 0.6% in favor of the Japanese yen, as the currency begins to strengthen following recent comments from the Bank of Japan, which suggest a more aggressive monetary policy stance toward year-end. For now, selling pressure remains dominant in the short term, and this bias could continue if a more restrictive policy is confirmed by the BOJ and if U.S. dollar weakness persists.

The US Federal Reserve rate decision the highlight next week.The Fed decision is 1 of 4 central bank decisions next week. The reserve Bank of Australia will announce their rate decision on Monday night in the US (10:30 PM ET) The expectations are for no change at 3.60%.

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥70.4K to ¥681K.Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥70.4K to ¥681K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £-203K from previous £-16.8K.United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £-203K from previous £-16.8K

Markets Weekly Outlook – FOMC Rate Cut Countdown, Economic Projections May Hold the Key.On Friday, the main US stock market indexes all moved slightly higher. The Dow Jones gained 236.46 points (a 0.49% rise), the S&P 500 increased by 31.44 points (a 0.46% gain), and the Nasdaq rose by 131.27 points (a 0.56% increase).

Canadian Dollar soars after upbeat labor report.Canadian Dollar soars after upbeat labor report

US Dollar into FOMC: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD.The announcement that Kevin Hassett is expected to be the next Fed Chair brought with it a bearish drive to the US Dollar. The current Director of the National Economic Council was named by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the likely next nominee to head the Central Bank a week earlier and that helped to rally equities and drive a sell-off in the Dollar, and that theme continued through this week as President Trump said that he already knew who he was going to name.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Fed to Play Santa, Cut Policy Rate.An update to Canada's labour market was the sole event in an otherwise quiet start to December. And unlike the recent weather, the data brought some heat.

Baker Hughes oil rig count +6 to 413.Recall last week, Baker Hughes oil rig count fell -12. Today they rose by half of that with a gain of 6 to 413.

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count above forecasts (409): Actual (413).United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count above forecasts (409): Actual (413)

US Dollar Index (DXY) Slips as Rate Cut Bets Remain Unchanged Post US PCE and University of Michigan Data.The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan went up to 53.3 this month, an improvement from 51.0 in November, and slightly better than what economists expected.

U.S. Dollar Moves Away From Weekly Lows As PCE Report Meets Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency is trying to rebound ahead of the weekend.

BoC to Leave Interest Rate Unchanged After Cuts in October and September.Dual central bank interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday top the week's calendar, with the BoC expected to hold rates, while a third consecutive 25 basis point cut from the Fed looks highly likely.

Fed poised for third straight cut, BoC seen on hold – RBC.Fed poised for third straight cut, BoC seen on hold – RBC

Fed poised for 25bp cut to 3.50–3.75% – Rabobank.Fed poised for 25bp cut to 3.50–3.75% – Rabobank

US: Consumer Spending Stalls in September.Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month (m/m), on par with the prior month. On an inflation adjusted basis, personal income was up just 0.1% m/m.

Argentina unveils tender for local US dollar bond as Milei seeks market return.Argentina announced on Friday the tender for a four-year dollar bond governed by local law as President Javier Milei's administration continues to test the waters for an eventual return to international capital markets.

Weekly Focus – US to Cut Rates Despite High Inflation.Over the last month, market expectations have increasingly turned towards a 25bp rate cut when the Fed makes its decision on Wednesday next week. This has been driven by lower inflation expectations and weaker forward-looking economic data, such as the balance between orders and inventories in the PMI and ISM surveys for November – private sector data that is still coming in a timely manner while the aftereffects of the government shutdown continue to hamper official data.

Fed Preview: Hawkish Cut is the Consensus Choice.Markets are pricing next week's 25bp cut to the policy rate target as largely a done deal, but 2026 outlook for both rates and liquidity remains a lot less clear. We expect Powell to push back on expectations of sequential rate cuts continuing in early 2026, echoing the message heard in October and reflecting the widely varying views within the FOMC.

Loonie Rallies After Canada Adds 54,000 Jobs in Major Employment Beat.Subject to a red-hot post-COVID boom, the Land of the Maple Syrup had severely tightened its policy rates and immigration rules, leading to a consecutive trough in activity starting in 2024.

Loonie Rallies on Jobs Beat as Markets Sees Extended BoC Hold.Canadian Dollar climbed sharply after a blockbuster November jobs report, which easily surpassed expectations and reinforced the view that the BoC will leave policy unchanged next week. The strength of the data has effectively shut the door on the prospect of another near-term rate cut.

Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Takes Off on Friday.Natural gas surged above $5 again on Friday, driven by unusually cold northeastern U.S. weather and rising demand. Pullbacks remain the preferred way to participate, with $5 now acting as a developing floor and potential upside toward $7.

US UoM consumer sentiment jumps to 53.3, inflation expectations ease further.US consumer sentiment improved in December, with the University of Michigan headline index rising to 53.3 from 51.0, beating expectations of 52.0. The gain was driven by a sharp rise in Expectations Index, which climbed to 55.0 from 51.0.

US PCE mixed, spending softens slightly as core inflation eases.US personal income rose 0.4% mom in September, in line with expectations, while personal spending increased 0.3%, a touch below the 0.4% consensus. The combination suggests consumer demand remains resilient but is moderating gradually.

Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Continues to See Resistance in Channel.Crude oil continued to struggle on Friday as both WTI and Brent faced pressure from downtrend lines, the 50-day EMA, and major resistance near $60. Supply remains ample, demand soft, and short-term rallies still appear vulnerable to selling.

Rising Expectations for Another Rate Hike in Japan.Expectations for another interest rate hike in Japan are clearly strengthening. Although initial hints appeared as early as September, they have intensified markedly in recent days.

Canada's Unemployment Rate Tumbles as Employment Jumps, Again .Canada's economy added another 54k jobs in November (+0.3% month/month), 57k more than consensus expectations for a 2.5k decline. The details weren't quite as strong with full-time positions falling 9k, while part time added 63k.

Canada employment jumps 53.6k in October, unemployment rate falls sharply to 6.5%.Canada's labor market delivered a major upside surprise in November, adding 53.6k jobs versus expectations of a small -1.5k decline. The strength came almost entirely from part-time positions, which rose by 63k, offsetting a modest dip in full-time work.

Natural Gas News: Prices Eye $5.341 Resistance as Weather Drives Today's Market Action.Cold weather forecasts boost natural gas futures, but soft inventory data and high supply may cap gains. Traders eye $5.341 resistance for a breakout.