Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.4%).Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.4%)

JPY: Markets eye BoJ rate path beyond December hike – OCBC.JPY: Markets eye BoJ rate path beyond December hike – OCBC

USD slides on soft data and risk appetite – ING.USD slides on soft data and risk appetite – ING

First Light News: Markets Rally on Weak Jobs Data as Fed Rate Cut Looms.US equities ended Wednesday's session on the front foot across nine of the eleven sectors, as traders responded to the softer-than-expected US ADP payrolls data that has solidified expectations for another 25-bp Fed rate cut next week.

Switzerland November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 3.0% vs 3.0% expected.The Swiss jobless rate holds steady at 3.0%, keeping steadier in November. However, the overall trend continues to point to gradual softening in labour market conditions and that will keep the SNB on their toes especially with the eventual need to pivot to negative interest rates down the road.

Japan's 30-Year Bond Auction Drew Strongest Demand Since 2019.US economic data yesterday all but cemented next week's Fed rate cut expectations. The ADP job report unexpectedly showed a 32k job loss – the second worst reading since June 2020 – and wage growth cooling.

DXY Outlook: Pricing in the December Rate Cut.However, the usual risks of a priced in market leading up to the FOMC meeting may be present, in line with Santa rally risks, increasing the weight on the near-term support and resistance levels.

Dollar Stays Weak Despite Small Bounce; Hassett Concerns Add to Pressure.Dollar attempted a mild recovery in Asia today, but the uptick lacked conviction and failed to alter the broader picture of USD underperformance. The greenback remains the weakest major this week, with selling pressure intensifying after Wednesday's sharp drop in ADP employment that reinforced concerns about labor-market deterioration.

US Passed, Japan Scored.The US economy lost 32'000 jobs in November. And no, it's not AI's fault.

US Employment Drops in November, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise.In the US, the Challenger report of November layoff and hiring announcements is due for release in the afternoon. While not usually a tier-1 market mover, it is one of the few timely data points on labour markets that will be available for the Fed before next week's meeting due to the delays caused by the government shutdown.

BoJ's Ueda: Neutral rate uncertainty keeps BoJ guessing how far to tighten.BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told lawmakers today that Japan's neutral interest rate remains highly uncertain, describing it as a concept that can only be estimated within a “quite wide range.” He noted that the central bank is attempting to narrow that range and may disclose updated estimates once confidence improves.

Turkey extended Russia gas contracts by a year, eying U.S. gas investment.Turkey finalised a one-year extension of its expiring gas import contracts with Russia that total 22 bcm, and is considering investing in U.S. gas production, Turkey's energy minister said.

Exclusive: India central bank to tolerate weaker rupee as inflows dry up, sources say.India's central bank will tolerate a weaker rupee as the country's external sector confronts multiple headwinds including a wider trade gap and stalling of dollar inflows into the world's fifth-largest economy, three sources familiar with the central bank's thinking told Reuters.

India's largest private lender sees rupee falling to 92 in absence of quick US trade deal.Uncertainty over the timing of the U.S.–India trade deal is fuelling rupee volatility and the absence of a quick agreement could push the currency to as low as 92 per dollar, the head of treasury at HDFC Bank said.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 102.50, supported by bullish technical indicators.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 102.50, supported by bullish technical indicators

EUROPE Day off for dollar debasement trade.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter

Reminder: There will be no US non-farm payrolls release this week.As mentioned earlier in the week, the most significant point of this ordeal is that it means the Fed will not have an official labour market report to work with before their next policy decision on 10 December. Now, is it just all a ruse by the BLS in timing it so as to not reflect "better" numbers that might get in the way of a Fed rate cut next week?

EUR/JPY trades flat near 181.00 ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales release.EUR/JPY trades flat near 181.00 ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales release

Rupee hits record low, forward premiums surge on weakening bias.The Indian rupee hit a record low on Thursday, deepening its slide past the 90 per dollar mark, as foreign investors kept pulling out of local stocks and the depreciation bias firmed after a breach of the key psychological level.

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump still pushing for Nvidia H200 chip to China.The yen weakened in early Tokyo trading, with USD/JPY pushing above 155.50 before easing after a strong long-end JGB auction. Japanese government bonds initially sold off across the 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-year sectors, but recovered much of the move after the 30-year sale delivered its highest bid-to-cover since 2019 and a markedly tighter tail, signalling resilient demand for duration.

Japan's 30-yr JGB sale draws highest demand since 2019 as bid-cover surges.Japan's 30-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand in six years on Wednesday, signalling solid investor appetite even as long-term yields hover near multi-decade highs. The Ministry of Finance reported a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.04, sharply higher than 3.12 at the previous auction in November and the highest since 2019.

China's Mixed Indicators Test Sentiment but Medium-Term Bias Holds.China's manufacturing slowdown, weaker demand, and rising unemployment weigh on markets, but expectations of PBoC easing support a constructive medium-term view.

WTI rises to near $59 as Ukraine attacks Russian energy facilities.WTI rises to near $59 as Ukraine attacks Russian energy facilities

Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Geopolitical Risks vs. Bearish Fundamentals.Oil and natural gas prices remain influenced by geopolitical tensions and technical breakouts, but weak fundamentals and oversupply continue to limit sustained upside.

U.S. ADP Employment Plunges 32K in November as Small Business Hiring Collapses.U.S. private payrolls fell 32K in November versus 15K expected, sending dollar tumbling against all majors as Fed cut odds surged.

Rupee likely to extend slide as 90 breach cements weak bias, invites speculative bets.The Indian rupee is expected to extend its slide on Thursday after breaching the 90-per-dollar mark, a move that traders say has firmed a weak bias and is likely to draw in speculative bets.

Spending surge flips RBA outlook as markets price hikes.October's spending surge has flipped the script on Australia's cautious Q3 narrative, fuelling RBA rate hike bets and driving AUD/USD even higher. While technicals favour Aussie bulls, bond futures look stretched, raising squeeze risk.

Indian rupee to rise from record lows, but US trade deal key for recovery: Reuters poll.The Indian rupee will regain some lost ground against the U.S. dollar over the next three months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists, but a reversal in the currency's fortunes hinges upon India and the U.S. agreeing to a trade deal.

Dollar weak with rate-cut enthusiasm intact, euro at 7-week high.The U.S. dollar was soft on Thursday after lacklustre economic data cemented the case for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, providing relief to the yen and pushing the euro to its highest level in nearly seven weeks.

Asia markets mixed, sentiment tepid as Fed looms.The dollar hit a five-week low while Asian stocks made a lacklustre start to the trading session on Thursday, after weaker-than-expected economic data cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting next week.