Euro Gains on ECB Hike Bets but Lacks Breakout Without Policy Action.ECB rate hike expectations are gaining traction in markets, with growing speculation that tightening could begin as early as April. Major institutions including Barclays and J.P.

Feds Waller: If oil stays high for months on end, at some point it bleeds into inflation.If oil stays high for months on and at some point it leads into core inflation. A high and persistent oil shock would not have a transitory impact on inflation.

Canada retail sales rise 1.1% mom but miss expectations.Canada's retail sales rose 1.1% mom to CAD 70.7B in January, falling short of expectations for a stronger 1.4% increase. The gain was nevertheless broad-based, with six of nine subsectors posting growth, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers.

investingLive European session wrap: Markets stay on edge as Middle East conflict drags on.The Middle East conflict drags on and we're set to head into the weekend expecting the same to continue next week. Headline risks remain paramount but there wasn't too much going on in the session.

India FX Reserves, USD down to $709.76B in March 9 from previous $716.81B.India FX Reserves, USD down to $709.76B in March 9 from previous $716.81B

EU trade contracts sharply, US exports drag.Eurozone trade data for January painted a weak start to the year, with both exports and imports contracting sharply. Exports fell -7.6% yoy to EUR 215.2B, while imports dropped -7.3% yoy to EUR 217.2B, leaving a EUR -1.9B deficit.

Sterling dips as oil rises, still set for weekly gain on hawkish BoE.The British pound fell on Friday, as oil prices resumed their upward trend, ​but stayed on course for a weekly rise after the Bank of England raised ‌expectations of rate hikes this year.

Rupee sinks past 93 per dollar to record low as Iran war risks deepen.The Indian rupee has hit a record low against the US dollar. This decline is driven by worries over global energy supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.

China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) remains unchanged at -5.7% in February.China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) remains unchanged at -5.7% in February

Russia Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (15%).Russia Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (15%)

US Dollar: Upside risk persists in energy shock – BBH.US Dollar: Upside risk persists in energy shock – BBH

Trump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz.Axios reports on the matter, saying that US president Trump is considering plans to take over Iran's Kharg Island so as to use it as a bargaining chip to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That according to four sources with knowledge of the issue.

ECB's Makhlouf: Don't think ECB has a tightening bias.ECB's Makhlouf: Don't think ECB has a tightening bias

Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. climbed from previous €11.6B to €12.1B in January.Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. climbed from previous €11.6B to €12.1B in January

Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. registered at €-1.9B, below expectations (€12.8B) in January.Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. registered at €-1.9B, below expectations (€12.8B) in January

Take Five: Dire Straits.Concerns over energy prices and inflation are set to shape the week ahead, as war rages in the Middle East, energy chiefs gather and the first business sentiment readings since the start of the conflict are on the agenda.

Italy Global Trade Balance registered at €1.089B, below expectations (€5.6B) in January.Italy Global Trade Balance registered at €1.089B, below expectations (€5.6B) in January

Italy Trade Balance EU up to €-1.138B in January from previous €-2.447B.Italy Trade Balance EU up to €-1.138B in January from previous €-2.447B

Chart alert: Watch 157.40 on USD/JPY, hawkish BoJ, ECB and BoE ignite yen strength.USD/JPY weakens as hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of England offset Fed expectations, while a firmer tone from the Bank of Japan supports yen strength. A break below 157.40 could trigger further downside toward key support levels.

Eurozone: ECB caution and hawkish risk – DBS.Eurozone: ECB caution and hawkish risk – DBS

GBP: BoE repricing lifts Pound but risks loom – MUFG.GBP: BoE repricing lifts Pound but risks loom – MUFG

Brent: Conflict keeps upside risk in focus – MUFG.Brent: Conflict keeps upside risk in focus – MUFG

First Light News: Oil Shock Keeps Central Banks on Their Toes.The same two forces continue to call the shots in markets today – geopolitics and inflation. The Middle East conflict is about to enter its fourth week and continues to disrupt oil prices.

April Meeting Key in ECB Decision.Markets yesterday again showed some hefty swings as mutual attacks on energy installations by both Iran and Israel caused the market to further move to a scenario where higher energy prices and supply disruptions might last longer than hoped for. Enter central bank assessments of the likes of the ECB and the Bank of England.

ECB's Muller: Inflation will probably be a bit higher.ECB's Muller: Inflation will probably be a bit higher

ECB's Nagel: Central Bank would need April hike if price outlook sours.ECB's Nagel: Central Bank would need April hike if price outlook sours

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Strait Risks Keep Oil Near $94 – $100 Next?.WTI holds $93 as Middle East risks sustain a price premium. Will a move into the Strait of Hormuz push Brent toward a $114 breakout?

UK budget deficit jumped in February as Iran war darkens fiscal outlook.Britain's public finances showed renewed signs of strain on Friday as data showed government ​borrowing overshot expectations in February, before the war in ‌Iran sent energy costs soaring which could add to pressure on public spending.

Oil Pulls Back, But Risks Remain Elevated.A week packed with war headlines and central bank decisions comes to an end with one clear conclusion: the Middle East conflict is intensifying, and no one knows what the right monetary policy response should be.

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing above expectations (£-8.5B) in February: Actual (£14.329B).United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing above expectations (£-8.5B) in February: Actual (£14.329B)