AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Slips to near 114.00, but maintains bullish structure above 100-day average.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Slips to near 114.00, but maintains bullish structure above 100-day average

Oil Surges Past $106, USD Rises as Fed Signals Steady Rates.Equities: Despite global energy flows disrupting markets, the benchmark S&P 500 index extended its rally in 2026 towards the next psychological level of 7,500 and a record high.

BOJ expected to raise rates to 1.0% in June, hike again in October-December.The Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate to 1.0% in June, nearly two-thirds of economists said in a Reuters poll, as it presses ahead with ​efforts to normalise monetary policy amid rising inflation concerns from the war in Iran.

USD/JPY Climbs Toward 160 as Rising US Yields Test Japan's Intervention Resolve Again.USD/JPY is once again approaching territory that could force Japanese authorities into difficult decisions. The pair surged through 158 on Friday as broad Dollar strength combined with another sharp rise in US Treasury yields.

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: KOSPI 8K record short-lived as Iran nerves bite.Government bond yields ground higher across the session, with the 10-year US Treasury pushing above 4.5%, lending support to the dollar while weighing on equities and metals. It was a broadly risk-off tone that built gradually through the day rather than arriving in one sharp move.

Cliff Notes: Beyond the Horizon.The 2026/27 Federal Budget was the main event in Australia this week. Our bulletin provides a detailed view of the Government's fiscal position, policy measures and economic expectations over the forward estimates.

US yields, dollar amplify oil-driven pressure on Indian rupee.The Indian rupee, which has been sliding to new lows in recent sessions, is expected to remain under pressure on Friday, with rising ​U.S. Treasury yields boosting the dollar and compounding the already significant ‌strain from high crude oil prices.

British Pound declines to near 1.3350 amid UK political uncertainty.British Pound declines to near 1.3350 amid UK political uncertainty

US Dollar Index climbs above 99.00 on strong data, Fed shift.US Dollar Index climbs above 99.00 on strong data, Fed shift

Asia open: Oil surges past $106, USD rose as Fed signals steady rates.Oil prices climbed above $106 per barrel as the ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption continued to fuel inflation fears and reinforce the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer interest rate stance. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi Beijing summit ended with renewed geopolitical tensions over Taiwan, weighing on Asia-Pacific equities and supporting US dollar strength.

USD/JPY Recovery Nears Make-Or-Break Moment For Trend Direction.Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair spiked above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.72 swing high to the 155.03 low. However, the bears remained active near the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

South Korea Trade Balance dipped from previous $23.77B to $23.76B in April.South Korea Trade Balance dipped from previous $23.77B to $23.76B in April

Japan PPI Surges 4.9% as Energy Shock Intensifies.Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated sharply in April, adding to expectations that the Bank of Japan could move toward another rate hike as early as June. The Corporate Goods Price Index rose 4.9% yoy, accelerating from 2.9% yoy in March and far exceeding market expectations of 3.0% yoy.

New Zealand PMI Falls to 50.5 as New Orders Turn Negative.New Zealand's manufacturing sector lost significant momentum in April, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index falling from 52.8 to 50.5, only marginally above the breakeven 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. The details of the report pointed to a broad loss of momentum, particularly in forward-looking components tied to demand and supply-chain activity.

Fed's Barr Says Shrinking Balance Sheet Should Not Trump Financial Stability.Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned Thursday that efforts to shrink the Fed's balance sheet by easing bank liquidity requirements would be misguided and could ultimately weaken financial stability. Speaking in New York, Barr pushed back against growing debate over reducing the central bank's “footprint” in financial markets.

Japan finance minister says G7 likely to discuss bond volatility next week.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on ​Friday that Group of Seven finance ‌chiefs are likely to discuss recent volatility in global bond markets as sharp ​moves in Japan, the United ​States and Britain ripple across major ⁠markets.

Fed's Williams Sees No Need for Rate Changes Right Now.New York Fed President John Williams signaled Thursday that he remains comfortable keeping interest rates unchanged for now, arguing that policymakers are still waiting to see how inflation pressures tied to the Middle East conflict evolve. Speaking in New York, Williams said monetary policy is currently “in a good place right now” and emphasized there is no immediate case for either tightening or easing.

Japan's Katayama says will act flexibly to safeguard people's livelihood.Japan's Katayama says will act flexibly to safeguard people's livelihood

WTI holds losses near $97.50 as 30 vessels navigate through Hormuz.WTI holds losses near $97.50 as 30 vessels navigate through Hormuz

Japanese Yen drops to two-week low vs USD as bears shrug off intervention fears.Japanese Yen drops to two-week low vs USD as bears shrug off intervention fears

Dollar poised for largest weekly rise in two months as Fed hike bets increase.The dollar firmed on Friday and was set for its largest weekly ​gain in more than two months, as rising energy prices and prolonged disruptions to shipping stoked inflationary pressures, boosting bets on a ‌Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

Japan finance minister heads to G7 as energy costs and bond yields dominate.Japan's finance minister will attend the G7 meeting in France from May 17, flagging a flexible fiscal response to energy costs while noting rising global bond yields are likely to feature on the agenda.

USTR's Greer: Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is crucial for China.USTR's Greer: Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is crucial for China

Euro weakens to near 1.1650 as hot US inflation boosts Fed hike expectations.Euro weakens to near 1.1650 as hot US inflation boosts Fed hike expectations

USTR Greer flags China ag deal progress but holds firm on tariff uncertainty.USTR Greer said an agricultural deal worth double-digit billions is expected from the US-China summit, with China meeting soybean commitments, though no tariff rate commitment was offered.

Rupee almost breaches 96/$ before clawing back.The Indian rupee neared 96/$ amid foreign fund outflows, oil inflation, and balance of payments concerns. Reported central bank intervention helped the rupee recover from an intraday low, though it closed weaker.

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3%) in April: Actual (4.9%).Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3%) in April: Actual (4.9%)

Pound Sterling breaks down as Labour turmoil overshadows stronger UK GDP data.Pound Sterling breaks down as Labour turmoil overshadows stronger UK GDP data

New Zealand manufacturing expansion nearly stalls in April, survey shows.New Zealand's manufacturing index marginally expanded in April, ​but the sector's growth ‌slowed to a six-month low as the conflict in the Middle ​East drove up costs ​and disrupted supply chains, a survey ⁠showed on Friday.

New Zealand manufacturing expansion slows sharply in April, PMI data shows.New Zealand's manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March, with new orders and raw material deliveries both contracting as Iran war freight disruptions weigh on the sector.