Brazil's central bank will not let higher inflation expectations take hold, says director.Brazil's central bank will not allow higher inflation expectations to translate into actual ​inflation, monetary policy director Nilton David said on Thursday, ‌stressing policymakers have full scope to act on price pressures through 2028.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Has Overhead Pressure as Traders Watch Middle East.Crude oil markets continue to see a lot of chop on Thursday, as we continue to see a massive amount of headline confusion and noise.

Fed's Musalem Rejects AI Optimism as Substitute for Vigilant Monetary Policy.St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem pushed back against growing optimism that artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains could eventually solve the inflation problem and justify easier monetary policy. Speaking at an economic conference in Reykjavik, Musalem warned that it would be dangerous for the Fed to rely on hypothetical future productivity improvements while inflation remains well above target and inflation expectations continue drifting higher.

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Looking Like a Short Soon.Natural gas continues to see a lot of noisy behavior on Thursday, while we are above the crucial $3 level. This is a market that I think continues to focus on weather in the US being mild.

Axios: US and Iran have reached a tentative 60-day Memorandum of Understanding.Axios reports the U.S. and Iran have reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the ceasefire and begin formal nuclear negotiations.

US Dollar: Upside risks build with Middle East tensions – MUFG.US Dollar: Upside risks build with Middle East tensions – MUFG

USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/BRL Forecasts – US Dollar Rising Again as Rates Rise.The US dollar continues to rise with higher rates in the United States providing the fuel. At this point, the markets are continuing to watch the moves in bonds, and pricing in higher rates for longer.

British Pound: Political risk premium unwound against Euro – ING.British Pound: Political risk premium unwound against Euro – ING

United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.622M below forecasts (0.67M) in April.United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.622M below forecasts (0.67M) in April

US new home sales for April 0.622 million versus 0.665 million estimate.Prior month 0.682 million revised to 0.663M New home sales 0.622M vs 0.665M estimate. New Homes sales down -6.2% vs +3.4% last month The data is based on signed contracts.

US: Consumer Spending Remains Soft in April Amid High Gas Prices .Personal income edged lower by 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) in April, coming in below market expectations for a 0.4% gain. After adjusting for inflation, taxes and transfers, real personal disposable income declined by 0.5% m/m.

U.S. Economy Expands by 1.6% in Q1 .According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's second estimate, the U.S. economy expanded by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q, annualized) in the first quarter – a bit lower than 2.0% reported in the advance estimate. The downgrade was largely due to a weaker pace of consumer spending and inventory investment.

Dollar Drifts Lower After Inflation Data, But Iran Risks Limit Selloff.Dollar weakened broadly in early US trading today, though price action remained largely rangebound against most major currencies as markets struggled to find a decisive macro direction. Elevated Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield holding near 4.5%, continued offering support to the greenback even as softer-than-expected monthly PCE inflation data eased immediate fears of sharp near-term inflation acceleration.

Canadian Dollar: Bearish bias near 1.39 against US Dollar – Scotiabank.Canadian Dollar: Bearish bias near 1.39 against US Dollar – Scotiabank

South Korean Won: Hawkish BoK and undervaluation support – BBH.South Korean Won: Hawkish BoK and undervaluation support – BBH

United States Q1 GDP growth revised to 1.6% vs. 2% expected.United States Q1 GDP growth revised to 1.6% vs. 2% expected

South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (7%).South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (7%)

Treasury Secretary Bessent: Have sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf strait authority.Treasury Secretary Bessentt is announcing some economic sanctions against Iran in what he terms the economic fury campaign against the Iranians.

Feds Williams: Higher productivity rates can raise real interest rates.New York Fed president Williams is speaking: higher productivity rates can raise real interest rates. Shifts in productivity are hard to spot in real time.

US Jobless Claims Edge Higher to 215k as Continuing Claims Rise Too.US initial jobless claims rose by 5k to 215k in the week ending May 23, coming in slightly above expectations of 210k. The four-week moving average of initial claims also climbed to 209k.

US Durable Goods Orders Smash Forecasts as Transportation Demand Jumps.US durable goods orders posted much stronger-than-expected growth in April, highlighting continued resilience in business investment and manufacturing demand despite elevated interest rates and growing inflation concerns. Headline durable goods orders jumped 7.9% mom to USD 346.0B, far above expectations for a 3.3% mom increase.

US Core PCE Inflation Stays Hot as Annual Price Pressures Accelerate to 3.3%.US inflation data for April showed some moderation in monthly price pressures, though the broader annual trend continued pointing higher as the Federal Reserve remains focused on persistent inflation risks. The headline PCE price index rose 0.4% mom, slightly below expectations of 0.5% mom.

US April durable goods orders +7.9% vs +3.5% expected.For background, the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the most closely watched gauges of U.S. manufacturing activity and business investment. Released about 18 working days after each reference month at 8:30 a.m.

US Core PCE for April YoY 3.3% vs 3.3% estimate. MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate.The U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index is one of the Federal Reserve's preferred measures of inflation because it tracks how much consumers are paying for goods and services across the economy and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. The report is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and includes both headline inflation and the closely watched “core” measure, which excludes food and energy prices because they tend to be more volatile.

US initial jobless claims 215K vs 211K expected.The data has been pointing to a resilient and even strengthening US labour market. Many other US jobs reports have been telling the same thing, which prompted the Fed to switch their focus from the employment mandate to the inflation mandate.

ECB Minutes Reveal June Rate Hike Momentum Growing Rapidly.The accounts of the April 29–30 meeting of the European Central Bank revealed that policymakers came significantly closer to raising interest rates than markets may have initially realized. While all members ultimately agreed to leave rates unchanged, the discussion showed growing concern that the Middle East energy shock is becoming more persistent and increasingly incompatible with a passive “looking through” approach.

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a down to 2.6% in April from previous 2.8%.Mexico Jobless Rate s.a down to 2.6% in April from previous 2.8%

Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.7%) in April.Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.7%) in April

ECB's decision to hold rates was close call for some, accounts show.The European Central Bank's decision to keep rates ​unchanged last month was ‌a close call for some policymakers as signs of persistently high ​inflation made it hard ​to look past the energy-driven shock, ⁠the accounts of the ​meeting showed on Thursday.

 Japanese Yen picks up from lows but remains close to intervention levels. Japanese Yen picks up from lows but remains close to intervention levels