Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Bounces After Dropping Early.Crude oil continues to test support on Wednesday, as the Venezuela situation continues to evolve. With 50 million barrels sent to the US, the reality is that it was less than 5 days' output.

US ADP jobs rose 41k, wage pressures hold firm.US private-sector job recovered at the end of 2025, with ADP reporting a 41k rise in employment in December, but missed expectations of 50k. Hiring remained uneven, with goods-producing jobs slipping -3k, while service-providing roles rose 44k.

United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (47K) in December: Actual (41K).United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (47K) in December: Actual (41K)

investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steady ahead of ADP, precious metals cool off.There wasn't too much in the headlines in European trading today. The handover from Asia saw a higher Australian dollar after the softer but stickier inflation data, reaffirming the potential for a rate hike by the RBA in February.

Argentina's central bank inks $3 billion repo deal ahead of key debt payment.Argentina's central bank announced on Wednesday a $3 billion repurchase agreement (REPO) with six international banks, as part of broader efforts to bolster its foreign currency reserves ahead of a key debt repayment deadline.

Soft US dollar outlook set to linger along with Fed independence worries.The outlook for the U.S. dollar among currency strategists polled by Reuters remains bearish at the start of 2026, with a modest decline expected by year-end based on persistent concerns around Federal Reserve independence and the possibility of lower interest rates.

Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Fall as Venezuela Deal Sparks Oversupply Fears.Crude oil futures retreat as Trump's Venezuela deal sparks oversupply fears. Technical analysis shows key support at $56.38 tested amid geopolitical tension

EUR/JPY declines as geopolitical tensions, hawkish BoJ boost Yen.EUR/JPY declines as geopolitical tensions, hawkish BoJ boost Yen

USD/JPY forecast: Dollar needs a nudge from US data to get moving again.The US dollar has had a slightly choppy start to the year, initially catching a bid on the back of weekend developments in Venezuela before giving some of that ground back, only to recover again into Tuesday. What's notable, though, is how quickly markets have brushed aside the geopolitical noise – not just from Venezuela, but also from Greenland.

Old Fears About Euro Have Returned.Buy the rumour, sell the fact. The strengthening of the US dollar is due to expectations of positive labour market statistics, a chance of another easing from the Fed in March fell to 45%, and demand for safe-haven assets in a changing world.

Dollar Consolidates as American Exceptionalism Returns.Drivers: The US dollar is trading narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The market has an eye toward the US employment data, which often roils trading, due Friday.

 USD/JPY wavers around 156.70 with all eyes on US employment data. USD/JPY wavers around 156.70 with all eyes on US employment data

RUB: Russian Oil exports plunge, revenue falls sharply – Commerzbank.RUB: Russian Oil exports plunge, revenue falls sharply – Commerzbank

US ISM services set to reflect a slowdown in activity towards the end of last year.The estimate is for the headline PMI reading to drop to 52.3, down from 52.6 in November. That will point to a further moderation in business activity to round up the year, as reflected in the S&P Global PMI report yesterday here.

USD/JPY holds below 158.90 amid China-Japan tensions – BBH.USD/JPY holds below 158.90 amid China-Japan tensions – BBH

USD/JPY: Expected to edge higher to 157.15 – UOB Group.USD/JPY: Expected to edge higher to 157.15 – UOB Group

AUD leads G10 and eyes 0.6800 – BBH.AUD leads G10 and eyes 0.6800 – BBH

USD steady near 200-DMA ahead of key US jobs data – BBH.USD steady near 200-DMA ahead of key US jobs data – BBH

India rupee gains for second straight day on RBI support.Wednesday's intervention ​followed a familiar playbook that the RBI used repeatedly last ‌year, when ‍it stepped in aggressively to push the rupee ‍higher, aiming to disrupt one-way moves. Previous interventions came ‌amid a build-up of speculative long dollar positions and expectations of consistent rupee depreciation, according to bankers.

Eurozone inflation cools to 2.0% in December, services still main driver.Eurozone inflation edged lower in December, with flash data showing headline CPI slowing from 2.1% to 2.0% yoy, undershooting expectations of 2.1%. Core inflation also eased, with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco falling from 2.4% to 2.3%, below the 2.4% consensus forecast.

Crude Oil Outlook: Supply Risks vs Geopolitics.• Maduro's fall opens Venezuelan assets across borders, including wealth management flows and crude oil supply. • The case surrounding potential US acquisition of Greenland continues to support safe havens, commodities, and defense stocks, creating sensitive and volatile trading conditions at the start of 2026.

Sterling holds near highest level in over three months ahead of US data.Sterling held near its highest level in over three months against the euro and dollar on Wednesday, as steadying risk appetite left European stocks little changed following a three-day rally that pushed them to record highs.

First Light News: Trump's Oil Strategy and Pre-NFP Positioning.Following a few months of compromised data due to the government shutdown, clean readings are crucial.

United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI up to 40.1 in December from previous 39.4.United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI up to 40.1 in December from previous 39.4

German construction activity returns to growth at end of 2025.That's some positive news at least for the German economy, with the jump higher here driven by a further increase in civil engineering activity. Of note, activity in this segment registered its strongest rate of expansion since March 2011.

GBP/JPY retreats below 211.00 as risk appetite recedes.GBP/JPY retreats below 211.00 as risk appetite recedes

China December forex reserves rise slightly less than expected.China's foreign exchange reserves rose slightly less than expected in December, official data showed on Wednesday, as the dollar weakness persisted.

UBS cuts Indian rupee March forecast to 92, expects short-lived US trade deal relief.UBS Investment Bank expects the Indian rupee to weaken to 92 per U.S. dollar by March, making the case that any relief from a potential U.S.–India trade deal announcement would likely be undermined by the central bank replenishing foreign exchange reserves.

Yen Recovers Amid China Export Curb, Aussie Firm Despite Softer CPI.Yen recovered modestly during the Asian session as Japanese equities edged lower, but both moves lacked conviction. The pullback in the Nikkei 225 was mild, and the corresponding FX response suggests investors see little reason to reassess the broader trend.

French consumer confidence rises slightly in December.The reading marks a slight improvement in household sentiment, though continuing to rest well below the long-term average of 100. For some context, the last time that French consumer confidence hit that mark was all the way back in October 2021.