European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen denounced U.S. President Trump’s new global tariffs as “a major blow to the world economy,” warning that they will trigger uncertainty, protectionism, and dire consequences. Speaking in Uzbekistan on Thursday, she urged negotiations to resolve trade barriers but affirmed the EU’s readiness to retaliate, with measures against steel tariffs nearing completion. Trump’s sweeping trade policy includes a 10% universal tariff, additional levies on 60 targeted nations, and 25% duties on auto imports. This follows last month’s steel/aluminum tariffs, which strained the EU industry. Trump claims the measures address unfair trade imbalances and has ordered scrutiny of foreign regulations, like the EU’s Digital Markets Act, allegedly harming U.S. firms.

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Volatile After Trump Tariffs; USD/JPY Slides on Safe-Haven Flows.AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain under bearish pressure, while USD/JPY develops negative price action.

Silver prices slid over 1% to dip below $33.50 per ounce on Thursday, reaching a one-week low as traders grappled with market uncertainties following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures. Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with steeper levies targeting major trading partners such as China (34%), the EU (20%), and Japan (24%). Additionally, a 25% tariff on foreign-made automobiles took immediate effect. Defending the move, Trump framed the tariffs as a strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. While gold surged to a record high in response to the announcement, silver came under pressure amid a broad selloff in commodities. Meanwhile, US economic data showed the manufacturing sector slipped into contraction in March, while job openings in February fell more than expected to 7.57 million. Investors now look ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payroll report for further economic signals.

The New Zealand dollar held its recent advance to around $0.573 on Thursday, despite New Zealand being hit by President Donald Trump’s 10% baseline import tariff. The currency also benefited from a declining U.S. dollar as Trump’s sweeping new tariffs heightened trade tensions and stoked concerns about slowing economic growth. However, among the affected nations, China faced the biggest-ever tariff hike on nearly all Chinese products, bringing total levies to 54%. This could place significant downward pressure on the Kiwi dollar, given that New Zealand’s economy is heavily reliant on exports to China. Domestically, the currency also faces additional downward pressure amid the dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with the central bank suggesting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.

South Korea on Thursday announced "emergency support measures" for industries, including automobiles, to counter the impact of new U.S. tariffs. Acting President Han Duck-soo stressed the need to mobilize all government resources to navigate the growing global tariff war. Officials in Seoul reportedly will assess the effects of U.S. tariffs on financial and forex markets and discuss outreach strategies with Washington. President Trump’s 25% reciprocal tariff on South Korean goods adds pressure to the export-driven economy, already facing domestic political challenges and slowing growth. Additionally, a separate 25% tariff on U.S. auto and car part imports is set to take effect soon, posing a significant threat to South Korean exports.

Oil Prices Drop as Trump's Tariff Policy Sparks Global Trade War Fears.WTI crude oil has hit the resistance at $72.50, while natural gas remains bullish within its upward price structure.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed optimism that Japan is on track to meet the central bank’s 2% inflation target, supported by strong consumption and capital spending. The IMF stated that after decades of near-zero inflation, Japan’s economy is showing signs of reaching a new equilibrium, with growth expected at 0.5% and inflation at 2%. However, it noted that risks to growth are tilted to the downside, with concerns over global slowdown and weaker domestic consumption. Japan’s headline inflation was 3.7% in February, driven by high food costs, which have impacted households. The fund expects inflation to gradually ease, helping it align with the BoJ’s target. The IMF also advised the board to consider gradually withdrawing monetary support if the economy progresses as expected. The IMF forecasts the economy to grow 1.2% in 2025, with inflation slowing to 2.4%. The BoJ has raised interest rates to 0.5%, signaling confidence in Japan’s progress over its inflation goal.

Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto said on Thursday that all options remain open in response to President Trump’s newly announced tariffs. He called the decision “extremely regrettable” and reiterated Japan’s request for an exemption during a meeting with U.S. officials. Muto emphasized the need for a careful yet decisive response and announced a task force to assess the impact of the 24% tariff on Japanese goods. A previously planned 25% tariff on car imports will take effect as scheduled, dealing a significant blow to Japan’s auto industry. Tokyo also expressed “serious concerns” about the tariffs’ compliance with World Trade Organization rules.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.28%, its lowest level in a month, as investors sought safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled massive increases in tariffs, deepening a global trade war that could hurt economic growth. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady on Tuesday but took a slight dovish turn by removing its previous reference to being cautious on further rate cuts. The central bank acknowledged that core inflation was cooling in line with expectations, but it needed to be confident the trend would continue. The risk of a global trade war has led traders to sharply increase their expectations for further rate cuts from the RBA this year, with swaps implying about an 80% chance of a 25bps reduction in May. In economic news, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed significantly in February as exports declined while imports increased, signaling potential headwinds for the external sector.

ICYMI - China will raise the retail prices of gasoline and diesel from today.China will increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel starting Thursday, following recent rises in international crude oil prices, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

UBS warns full tariffs could push US inflation to 5%.UBS estimates that if the full slate of proposed tariffs is permanently implemented, U.S. inflation could rise to around 5%, as import costs filter through to consumer prices.

China's Caixin PMI services rises to 51.9, but deflation and jobs remain concerns.China's Caixin Services PMI ticked up to 51.9 in March from 51.4, while Composite PMI rose to 51.8 from 51.5, marking the 17th consecutive month of expansion.

Equities in Singapore dropped 18 points, or 0.4%, to 3,937 in early trade on Thursday, hitting the lowest level in more than a week, tracking a plunge in U.S. futures after U.S. President Trump's tariffs announcement. Traders focused their attention on the 10% baseline tariff, which will go into effect on April 5, including for Singapore. As the country imposes no tariffs on U.S. products under the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, it is only subject to the baseline 10% rate. However, fresh data from China capped the fall, after a private survey showed that the services sector on the mainland grew the most in three months, following the manufacturing sector, which expanded at the fastest pace in four months. Meanwhile, Singapore’s private sector grew the most in four months. The STI fell for the 4th straight session, weighed down by tech, energy, minerals, and finance, with notable losses from UOB (-1.5%), Hongkong Land (-1.5%), OCBC (-0.6%), and SembCorp Industries (-0.6%).

China announced plans for "resolute" countermeasures against the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods, aiming to protect its interests, the Commerce Ministry said Thursday. The statement followed Trump’s move of an additional 34% tariff on Chinese imports on top of the 20% levy imposed earlier this year. Beijing urged Washington to revoke its unilateral tariffs and engage in fair dialogue with trading partners, but it did not specify its planned response. It criticized the tariffs as violations of international trade rules, calling them an act of “unilateral bullying” that infringes the rights of relevant parties. China also warned that the tariff hike would not solve U.S. economic issues but would harm American interests, disrupt global trade, and threaten the supply chain. "There are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism is not a viable path forward," the ministry said, noting that many countries have voiced their strong disapproval and explicit objections.

Japan's PMI composite finalized at 48.9, back in contraction.Japan's services sector lost momentum in March, with the final PMI Services reading falling to the neutral mark of 50.0, down sharply from 53.7 in February. Composite PMI dropped to 48.9—its lowest since November 2022—signaling contraction in overall private sector activity.

USD/JPY to a three week low towards 147.50.USD/JPY, though, lost ground from above 150.25 (early highs) to below 148.00 and that has continued. USD/JPY has hit lows 147.60 as the flight into yen carried through.

Equities in Hong Kong tumbled 268 points, or 1.2%, to 22,933 on Thursday, extending losses from the prior session after U.S. President Trump announced steeper-than-expected tariffs. The move drove investors away from risk assets, pushing the Hang Seng to a one-month low amid broad-sector declines. Tech stocks slipped 1.7% as manufacturing hubs in China and Taiwan faced new tariffs above 30%, bringing total levies on Chinese imports to 54%. Meanwhile, U.S. futures slumped sharply on fears that an escalating trade war could further weaken the already struggling U.S. economy. Traders now await Beijing’s response to Trump’s latest move. Citigroup warned that the increased tariffs could cut China’s economic growth by 2.4ppts and shrink export growth by 15.4ppts, adding to concerns over the country’s economic outlook. Some early laggards included Shenzhou Intl.(-15.8%), Techtronic Inds. (-8.6%), Sunny Optical Tech. (-7.8%), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (-6.1%), and BYD Electronic Intl. (-5.7%).

The S&P Global Hong Kong SAR PMI fell to 48.3 in March 2025 from 49.0 in February, marking the second straight month of contraction and the lowest since June 2024. New orders saw their sharpest decline in nine months, driven by weak domestic and external demand, especially from mainland China, with manufacturing seeing the steepest drops in orders and output. Meanwhile, employment levels fell for the third time in four months, as firms responded to rising competition and policy uncertainty by cutting staff. Purchasing activity also weakened, leading to the fastest depletion of input stocks since August 2023. On the cost front, input prices rose at the fastest pace since October 2024, driven mainly by wage inflation, though overall price pressures showed signs of easing. However, selling prices remained subdued amid weak demand. Looking ahead, business sentiment deteriorated to a one-and-a-half-year low, as firms cited concerns over competition, inflation, and policy uncertainty.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dropped nearly 10 basis points to around 1.39% on Thursday as investors rushed for safer assets after US President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs, escalating the global trade war that could thwart economic growth. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on China, bringing total levies on the country to 54%. Other major economies facing steep tariffs include the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), along with a 10% baseline tariff on all imports. Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cautioned that the new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic stability. While the BOJ is expected to raise interest rates further later this year, ongoing concerns over trade tensions and domestic economic uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook.

Japan Trade Minister Muto has spoken with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick.Japan Trade Minister Muto: Held online meeting with US Commerce Secretary. Told US Secretary new US tariffs would bring negative impact on US economy as well.

The euro jumped to $1.09 on Thursday even as U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all imports from the European Union. The currency also benefitted from a weaker U.S. dollar as the tariff move marked a significant escalation in the global trade conflict and raised concerns over economic growth. Meanwhile, recent economic data showed that Eurozone inflation rate eased to 2.2% in March, the lowest level since November 2024. Core inflation dropped more than expected to 2.4%, marking its lowest reading since January 2022. With inflationary pressures cooling and global trade tensions escalating, market expectations strengthened that the European Central Bank could lower interest rates by 65bps this year.

Rupee to weaken on risk aversion, Asia FX fall stoked by US tariffs.The Indian rupee is poised to fall at open on Thursday, driven by the decline in Asian equity and currency markets after U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of broad-based tariffs.

Event Guide: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (March 2025).Who's ready to trade the U.S. NFP report? Here's a rundown of market expectations, what leading indicators are pointing to, and what potential results could mean for USD price action.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 51.8 in March 2025 from 51.5 in February, marking its highest level since last November. This was the 17th consecutive month of growth in private sector activity, driven by the strongest expansion in manufacturing output in four months and a three-month peak in service sector growth. The increase in activity was underpinned by higher inflows of new business, including a solid rise in export orders. Backlogs of work also grew for the second straight month. However, employment levels declined, mainly due to job shedding in the service sector. On the pricing front, average charges fell for the fourth consecutive month, as input costs declined at their fastest pace in nearly five years, albeit marginally. Lastly, business confidence remained positive, with sentiment staying above the 2024 average, despite a slight dip compared to February.

China's 10-year government bond yield plunged to around 1.79% on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in a month, as investors flocked to safer assets following the announcement of aggressive and sweeping tariff measures from the US. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, bringing the total levies on China to 54%, making it the largest tariff increase ever applied to nearly all Chinese exports. This dramatic tariff hike threatens to severely disrupt China’s shipments to the US, further escalating the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Other major global economies are also facing significant tariff increases, with the EU facing a 20% levy, Japan at 24%, and India at 26%, along with a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries. These tariffs are set to take effect on April 5 for the base rates and on April 9 for the higher reciprocal rates.

The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 51.9 in March 2025, up from 51.4 in the previous month, surpassing market forecasts of 51.6. It marked the strongest growth in the services sector since last December, as new orders rose the most in three months, driven by increases in domestic demand, supported by marketing efforts and a broad improvement in demand conditions. Employment declined modestly, with job shedding being the fastest in nearly a year. Regarding prices, input prices rose after falling fractionally in the previous month, due to higher staff expenses and greater supplier charges. Output prices fell for the second straight month amid heightened market competition. Lastly, business sentiment moderated amid concerns over the global economic and geopolitical outlooks.

Iron ore futures dropped to around CNY 747.5 per tonne, heavily influenced by President Trump’s new tariffs, which have added uncertainty to global markets and dampened iron ore demand. As a crucial raw material for steel production, iron ore is particularly vulnerable to changes in trade policies. Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest importer of iron ore, is facing mixed economic signals. On the one hand, hot metal production, a key indicator of iron ore consumption, continued to rise in March, supporting steel demand. Factory activity also grew the most in four months. However, the property market remains weak, with home prices in 100 cities falling further. This ongoing downturn in real estate could reduce steel demand for construction and infrastructure projects, potentially affecting iron ore consumption. While industrial activity provides optimism, the property sector’s struggles present a challenge for China’s broader economic growth and iron ore demand.

The offshore yuan depreciated toward 7.32 per dollar on Thursday, touching a one-month low in the earlier session, as market sentiment soured following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a more aggressive and expansive tariff policy. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, pushing the total levies on China to 54%. This move represents the largest-ever tariff increase on nearly all Chinese exports, potentially devastating China’s shipments to the US. Other major global economies are also facing significant tariffs, with the EU seeing a 20% levy, Japan at 24%, and India at 26%, along with a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries. These new tariffs, set to take effect on April 5 for the base rates and on April 9 for the higher reciprocal rates, have further heightened fears of an escalating global trade war. On the economic front, a private survey showed that China's services activity hit a three-month high in March 2025, surpassing market forecasts.

The South Korean won traded around 1,465 per dollar, holding its recent gains as the US dollar weakened after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs, stoking fears of a deepening global trade war. His plan includes a 10% "baseline" tariff on all imports and country-specific levies, such as a 25% tariff on South Korean goods, adding fresh strain to the nation’s export-driven economy. In response, Acting President Han Duck-soo ordered emergency measures to support affected industries and urged negotiations with Washington to mitigate the impact. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok also pledged swift and tailored support to stabilize markets, promising to use all available tools. On the monetary policy front, March’s rise in inflation has sparked speculation that the Bank of Korea may pause its rate-cutting cycle in April, as it faces the challenge of balancing inflationary pressures with supporting economic growth.

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.3% to around 3,340 while the Shenzhen Component dropped 0.6% to 10,450 on Thursday, with mainland stocks snapping a two-day advance as US President Donald Trump imposed a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, intensifying the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. The White House clarified that the 34% tariff is in addition to the existing 20% levies, bringing total tariffs on Chinese goods to 54%. Other major economies also faced steep duties, including the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), alongside a 10% baseline tariff on all countries. Adding to market concerns, China conducted live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait this week, heightening geopolitical tensions in the region. High-growth technology, new energy and consumer stocks led the decline.