Markets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitics Overpower Fundamentals: The $150 Oil Warning and Rate Cut.Wall Street's primary indexes tumbled on Friday, led by a sharp decline in the Dow to a three-month low as the market grappled with escalating conflict in the Middle East and a surprising contraction in the US labor market.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Oil's Well… Until it Isn't.Escalating conflict in the Middle East dominated headlines this week. WTI oil prices surged an eye-watering 30% since last Friday to over $89/bbl – it's highest level since late-2023, but changing by the minute (Chart 1).

International Week Ahead—March 6, 2026.Canada's labor market data for February is likely to show a modestly weakening job market, with pain concentrated in trade-centric sectors. For now, much of this has been felt in manufacturing, but is likely to spread to transportation.

U.S. Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary.We published a note early this week detailing our thoughts on how the Iran conflict might influence the U.S. economy. Our best judgment is that the effects on domestic inflation are likely to be modest.

Canada's Jobs and Unemployment Rate Likely Ticked Higher in February.February's Labour Force Survey for Canada next Friday, alongside January's international merchandise trade report on Thursday will be in focus to assess whether the economy started 2026 on a solid footing.

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 6 Mar:Weak jobs report meets oil-driven inflation risk.The focus shifted to the US jobs report released at 8:30 AM from the barrage of news from the Middle East. February U.S. employment report showed a noticeable slowdown in hiring, with nonfarm payrolls falling by about 92,000, well below expectations for modest job growth.

Markets Weekly Outlook - Geopolitics Overpower Fundamentals: The $150 oil warning and the rate cut dilemma.Geopolitical conflict, particularly in the Middle East, has sent oil prices surging ($90/bbl with $150 warning) and reignited stagflation fears globally, hitting Europe hardest. A weak US jobs report shifts Fed rate cut expectations to June.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakout Signals Hint at Upside Momentum.Natural gas confirmed a bullish falling wedge breakout Friday, reclaiming key averages, suggesting a potential rally, though resistance near prior highs may limit momentum in the near term.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Traders Play Catch-Up to Middle East Supply Disruptions.For the past few years, the playbook for oil has been to “buy the rumor” of Middle East supply disruptions, then “sell the news” when the geopolitical tensions inevitably blew over with no disruption to supply.

Oil reaches $92 in a historic War squeeze – WTI Analysis.WTI Oil Update: Crude Oil spike 37% this week to $92.68 amid de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Supply chain disruptions add to significant stagflation fears.

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – WTI Oil Soars 16% As Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender.Oil traders enjoy an epic rally as Kuwait is forced to cut production.

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Steadies as Rising Oil Prices Offset Weak Payrolls.DXY consolidates as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns while weak U.S. payrolls pressure yields, leaving Fed policy expectations and rate-cut timing uncertain.

Australian central banker says US dollar remains a safe haven for investors.A top Australian central banker said on Friday that the days of U.S. "exorbitant privilege" may be coming to an end, ​but the dollar's safe-haven rally this week after the ‌Middle East war suggests any change will be glacial.

Fed's Hammack says interest rates likely on hold for some time.Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said Friday she sees no imminent need to change the stance of monetary policy in an economy ​where inflation is still “too high.”

Middle East escalation sends shockwaves through global energy markets.The escalation between Israel and Iran has triggered major disruption in the Persian Gulf, rattling oil and LNG markets, straining Gulf exporters, and deepening concerns over inflation and energy security.

Iran launches attack on US forces in Bahrain, and in Baghdad..Reports that Iran is launching attacks on US forces in Bahrain, and also attacking military base housing US diplomatic centered near Baghdad international airport. The price of crude oil is extending above the $92 level.

Emerging market equity funds slide as Iran conflict sparks selloff.Emerging market equity funds have posted steep declines this month as investors cut exposure to risk ​assets amid the escalating Iran conflict, making them among ‌the worst performers across asset classes.

US Dollar Today: Payrolls Shock Raises Questions for Fed Policy.The US dollar steadied against major peers after the latest US non-farm payrolls report surprised markets with an unexpected contraction in employment, although analysts say temporary factors likely exaggerated the weakness. The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, well below expectations for a 55,000 gain, while revisions showed.

U.S. Dollar Retreats From Session Highs After Weak Jobs Data: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The weak Non Farm Payrolls report raised worries about the health of the U.S. economy.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate 2.1% versus 3.2% previously.The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 has declined to 2.1% from 3.2%. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 2.1 percent on March 6, down from 3.0 percent on March 2.

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Short Covering into the Weekend?.The natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the day on Friday as we head into a potentially dangerous weekend. However, most traders will need to understand that this is an American contract.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Skyrockets.The crude oil markets continue to see a lot of volatility, as oil has broken above the resistance area that we have been watching for a few days now.

Weekly Focus – Modest Reaction to Large Conflict.Since Saturday, Israel and the US have been attacking Iran from the air with Iran firing back with missiles and drones against targets throughout the Middle East. Iran has also effectively closed ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz which removes a significant share of seaborne oil, oil products and natural gas from the global market.

Non-Farm Payrolls large miss and Oil explodes higher to $90 – A Stagflation cocktail ahead of weekend risk.Market Outlook: US Markets face a dark day as Non-Farm Payrolls miss expectations with a loss of 92,000 jobs. Combined with a miss in Retail Sales and exploding Oil prices due to Middle East tensions, stagflation fears are rising.

US business inventories for December 0.1% versus 0.1% expected.For what it is worth, the US business and retail inventories for the month of December was released: Business inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month was revised lower to 0.0% from 0.1%.

DAX, USD/JPY, XLU and NVDA Forecast – Markets Making Highs, Breaking Down, and Going Sideways All Offer Possibilities.I'm looking at a wide range of assets for treading on Friday, and heading into the weekend.

Investors cling to shock-absorber trades as Iran war brings economic visibility to zero.Some of the most crowded trades of the past year are emerging as the key shock absorbers for any potential market pain as war in the Middle East moves into a second week, bringing visibility over inflation and monetary policy to ​zero.

Why is the UK at high risk from Iran-fuelled energy price surge?.Britain faces bigger risks from a jump in inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East than many other European countries, just as the country's high rate of price growth seemed to be coming to an end.

US: Employment Unexpectedly Declines in February and Unemployment Rate Tcks up to 4.4%.Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92k in February, well below the consensus forecast calling for a gain of 55k. Revisions to the two prior months subtracted a total of 69k from the previously reported figures, with the bulk of the revisions concentrated in December.

Oil Shock Drowns Out Weak NFP, Risk Aversion Supports Dollar.Markets appeared largely unfazed by the shockingly weak US non-farm payroll report, as attention is already occupied by the explosive surge in oil prices. WTI crude has broken decisively above the 85 mark and continues to climb as the US session begins, turning energy markets into the dominant driver of global sentiment.