EUR/JPY gains further to near 183.00 as BoJ raises interest rates to 0.75%.EUR/JPY gains further to near 183.00 as BoJ raises interest rates to 0.75%

GBP/JPY climbs further beyond mid-208.00s after BoJ's widely expected 25 bps rate hike.GBP/JPY climbs further beyond mid-208.00s after BoJ's widely expected 25 bps rate hike

WTI struggles below $56.00 amid hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal.WTI struggles below $56.00 amid hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (0.75%).Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (0.75%)

Toyota to sell U.S.-made vehicles in Japan to ease trade tensions.Toyota Motor Corp plans to begin selling U.S.-manufactured vehicles in Japan from 2026, a move aimed at easing trade tensions with Washington and strengthening ties with President Donald Trump's administration as tariff negotiations remain in focus.

Soft US inflation adds to RBI support in tentative rupee recovery.The Indian rupee is likely to hold on to central bank-led recovery on Friday, with softer U.S. inflation offering incremental support, although doubts over the data and potential dollar demand from corporates may cap upside.

ECB Holds Rates Steady, Signals Easing Cycle Likely Over.The ECB held rates steady, signaled the easing cycle is likely over, but kept all options open with balanced guidance that markets read as less hawkish than expected.

Japan finance minister flags fiscal sustainability, debt reduction focus.Japan's Finance Minister Katayama signalled a renewed emphasis on fiscal discipline when outlining priorities for compiling the next fiscal year's budget, highlighting the need to balance policy support with long-term sustainability and market confidence.

EU seals €90bn financing deal for Ukraine for 2026–27 - long-term funding plan for Ukraine.Summary EU approves €90bn Ukraine financing for 2026–27 Deal builds on budget headroom borrowing plans Multi-year support aims to boost certainty European Union leaders have reached agreement on a major new financial support package for Ukraine, approving €90 billion of funding for 2026–27, according to comments from European Council President António Costa. “We have a deal to finance Ukraine,” Costa said, confirming that the decision to provide €90bn of support over the two-year period had been approved.

EU moves toward budget-backed loan for Ukraine - EU leaders agree in principle.European Union leaders have agreed in principle to provide a new loan to Ukraine, funded through EU borrowing on capital markets and backed by unused EU budget headroom, according to draft conclusions seen by Reuters.

BOE Cuts to 3.75% in Divided Vote, Sterling Edges Higher on Hawkish Tone.The Bank of England cut its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% at its December meeting, delivering the sixth rate reduction since August 2024.

U.S. Inflation Cooled from 3.0% to 2.7% in November, Gov't Shutdown Distortion?.Headline CPI eased from 3.0% to 2.7% year-on-year in November, but analysts remained wary of government shutdown distortions on the data. Here's how USD pairs behaved.

Fragile yen on tenterhooks ahead of BOJ.The yen was pinned near recent lows on Friday while traders waited to see whether the Bank of Japan can convince the market it can keep hiking interest rates into next year, while the euro slipped a bit after the central bank didn't hint at rate hikes.

When is the BoJ rate decision and how could it affect USD/JPY?.When is the BoJ rate decision and how could it affect USD/JPY?

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) up to 7.4% in November from previous 7.3%.Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) up to 7.4% in November from previous 7.3%

UK consumer confidence rises in December but remains deeply pessimistic.British consumer confidence edged higher in December, reaching its joint-highest level of the year, though sentiment remains weak by historical standards, according to a closely watched monthly survey from GfK.

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence registered at -17 above expectations (-18) in December.United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence registered at -17 above expectations (-18) in December

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence increased to 73.6 in December from previous 67.1.New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence increased to 73.6 in December from previous 67.1

Japan core CPI holds at 3.0% in November, reinforcing BoJ outlook.Japan's nationwide inflation data for November showed price pressures remaining firmly entrenched, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its gradual path toward policy normalisation.

Japan should consider nuclear weapons - source shaping security policy in government.Japan's long-standing stance on nuclear weapons has come under renewed scrutiny after a source within the prime minister's office suggested the country may ultimately need to possess nuclear arms, comments that risk sparking political backlash both domestically and internationally.

Trading Day: Three cheers for 'whacky' inflation.This will be the last regular 'Trading Day' newsletter of the year. Thank you for all your support and feedback, and we look forward to an equally eventful and rewarding 2026.

New Zealand records November trade deficit as imports exceed exports (d'uh ;-) ).New Zealand recorded a monthly trade deficit of NZ$163 million in November, as import growth slightly outpaced exports, according to data released by Statistics New Zealand. While the deficit was relatively modest in monthly terms, the figures highlight the ongoing challenge of balancing external trade amid uneven global demand and domestic consumption trends.

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) registered at $-163M above expectations ($-1175M) in November.New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) registered at $-163M above expectations ($-1175M) in November

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bounce Fades at $57 – 20-Day Resistance Looms.Crude oil attempted to strengthen after defending the $55.00–$55.23 long-term support zone but saw short-term enthusiasm fade Thursday at a slightly higher three-day high of $57.00, highlighting prior November support now acting as resistance, while the long-term downtrend remains dominant.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Rally Fails at $4.22 – Bear Engulfing Targets $3.84.Natural gas's short-term rally attempt failed Thursday with a bearish engulfing pattern testing prior support at $4.24 as resistance, keeping sellers in control and targeting a break below this week's $3.84 low.

New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: 101.5 (December) vs 98.4.New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: 101.5 (December) vs 98.4

Natural Gas News: Bearish Sentiment Builds After Weak Storage Report and Warm Forecast.Natural gas futures fall as weak EIA inventory report and warm weather outlook pressure prices. Traders now eye key support near $3.842 for next move.

United States Total Net TIC Flows dipped from previous $190.1B to $-37.3B in October.United States Total Net TIC Flows dipped from previous $190.1B to $-37.3B in October

New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey climbed from previous 90.9 to 96.5 in 4Q.New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey climbed from previous 90.9 to 96.5 in 4Q

Bank of Mexico lowers benchmark interest rate to 7.00%.The Bank of Mexico lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, signaling confidence that inflation is still on track to return to target, even though near-term inflation risks have increased and economic growth is weak.