Oil Prices Drop as Trump's Tariff Policy Sparks Global Trade War Fears.WTI crude oil has hit the resistance at $72.50, while natural gas remains bullish within its upward price structure.

ICYMI - China will raise the retail prices of gasoline and diesel from today.China will increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel starting Thursday, following recent rises in international crude oil prices, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

UBS warns full tariffs could push US inflation to 5%.UBS estimates that if the full slate of proposed tariffs is permanently implemented, U.S. inflation could rise to around 5%, as import costs filter through to consumer prices.

China's Caixin PMI services rises to 51.9, but deflation and jobs remain concerns.China's Caixin Services PMI ticked up to 51.9 in March from 51.4, while Composite PMI rose to 51.8 from 51.5, marking the 17th consecutive month of expansion.

Japan's PMI composite finalized at 48.9, back in contraction.Japan's services sector lost momentum in March, with the final PMI Services reading falling to the neutral mark of 50.0, down sharply from 53.7 in February. Composite PMI dropped to 48.9—its lowest since November 2022—signaling contraction in overall private sector activity.

USD/JPY to a three week low towards 147.50.USD/JPY, though, lost ground from above 150.25 (early highs) to below 148.00 and that has continued. USD/JPY has hit lows 147.60 as the flight into yen carried through.

The S&P Global Hong Kong SAR PMI fell to 48.3 in March 2025 from 49.0 in February, marking the second straight month of contraction and the lowest since June 2024. New orders saw their sharpest decline in nine months, driven by weak domestic and external demand, especially from mainland China, with manufacturing seeing the steepest drops in orders and output. Meanwhile, employment levels fell for the third time in four months, as firms responded to rising competition and policy uncertainty by cutting staff. Purchasing activity also weakened, leading to the fastest depletion of input stocks since August 2023. On the cost front, input prices rose at the fastest pace since October 2024, driven mainly by wage inflation, though overall price pressures showed signs of easing. However, selling prices remained subdued amid weak demand. Looking ahead, business sentiment deteriorated to a one-and-a-half-year low, as firms cited concerns over competition, inflation, and policy uncertainty.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dropped nearly 10 basis points to around 1.39% on Thursday as investors rushed for safer assets after US President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs, escalating the global trade war that could thwart economic growth. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on China, bringing total levies on the country to 54%. Other major economies facing steep tariffs include the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), along with a 10% baseline tariff on all imports. Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cautioned that the new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic stability. While the BOJ is expected to raise interest rates further later this year, ongoing concerns over trade tensions and domestic economic uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook.

Japan Trade Minister Muto has spoken with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick.Japan Trade Minister Muto: Held online meeting with US Commerce Secretary. Told US Secretary new US tariffs would bring negative impact on US economy as well.

The euro jumped to $1.09 on Thursday even as U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all imports from the European Union. The currency also benefitted from a weaker U.S. dollar as the tariff move marked a significant escalation in the global trade conflict and raised concerns over economic growth. Meanwhile, recent economic data showed that Eurozone inflation rate eased to 2.2% in March, the lowest level since November 2024. Core inflation dropped more than expected to 2.4%, marking its lowest reading since January 2022. With inflationary pressures cooling and global trade tensions escalating, market expectations strengthened that the European Central Bank could lower interest rates by 65bps this year.

Rupee to weaken on risk aversion, Asia FX fall stoked by US tariffs.The Indian rupee is poised to fall at open on Thursday, driven by the decline in Asian equity and currency markets after U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of broad-based tariffs.

Event Guide: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (March 2025).Who's ready to trade the U.S. NFP report? Here's a rundown of market expectations, what leading indicators are pointing to, and what potential results could mean for USD price action.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 51.8 in March 2025 from 51.5 in February, marking its highest level since last November. This was the 17th consecutive month of growth in private sector activity, driven by the strongest expansion in manufacturing output in four months and a three-month peak in service sector growth. The increase in activity was underpinned by higher inflows of new business, including a solid rise in export orders. Backlogs of work also grew for the second straight month. However, employment levels declined, mainly due to job shedding in the service sector. On the pricing front, average charges fell for the fourth consecutive month, as input costs declined at their fastest pace in nearly five years, albeit marginally. Lastly, business confidence remained positive, with sentiment staying above the 2024 average, despite a slight dip compared to February.

China's 10-year government bond yield plunged to around 1.79% on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in a month, as investors flocked to safer assets following the announcement of aggressive and sweeping tariff measures from the US. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, bringing the total levies on China to 54%, making it the largest tariff increase ever applied to nearly all Chinese exports. This dramatic tariff hike threatens to severely disrupt China’s shipments to the US, further escalating the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Other major global economies are also facing significant tariff increases, with the EU facing a 20% levy, Japan at 24%, and India at 26%, along with a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries. These tariffs are set to take effect on April 5 for the base rates and on April 9 for the higher reciprocal rates.

The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 51.9 in March 2025, up from 51.4 in the previous month, surpassing market forecasts of 51.6. It marked the strongest growth in the services sector since last December, as new orders rose the most in three months, driven by increases in domestic demand, supported by marketing efforts and a broad improvement in demand conditions. Employment declined modestly, with job shedding being the fastest in nearly a year. Regarding prices, input prices rose after falling fractionally in the previous month, due to higher staff expenses and greater supplier charges. Output prices fell for the second straight month amid heightened market competition. Lastly, business sentiment moderated amid concerns over the global economic and geopolitical outlooks.

Iron ore futures dropped to around CNY 747.5 per tonne, heavily influenced by President Trump’s new tariffs, which have added uncertainty to global markets and dampened iron ore demand. As a crucial raw material for steel production, iron ore is particularly vulnerable to changes in trade policies. Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest importer of iron ore, is facing mixed economic signals. On the one hand, hot metal production, a key indicator of iron ore consumption, continued to rise in March, supporting steel demand. Factory activity also grew the most in four months. However, the property market remains weak, with home prices in 100 cities falling further. This ongoing downturn in real estate could reduce steel demand for construction and infrastructure projects, potentially affecting iron ore consumption. While industrial activity provides optimism, the property sector’s struggles present a challenge for China’s broader economic growth and iron ore demand.

The offshore yuan depreciated toward 7.32 per dollar on Thursday, touching a one-month low in the earlier session, as market sentiment soured following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a more aggressive and expansive tariff policy. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, pushing the total levies on China to 54%. This move represents the largest-ever tariff increase on nearly all Chinese exports, potentially devastating China’s shipments to the US. Other major global economies are also facing significant tariffs, with the EU seeing a 20% levy, Japan at 24%, and India at 26%, along with a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries. These new tariffs, set to take effect on April 5 for the base rates and on April 9 for the higher reciprocal rates, have further heightened fears of an escalating global trade war. On the economic front, a private survey showed that China's services activity hit a three-month high in March 2025, surpassing market forecasts.

The South Korean won traded around 1,465 per dollar, holding its recent gains as the US dollar weakened after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs, stoking fears of a deepening global trade war. His plan includes a 10% "baseline" tariff on all imports and country-specific levies, such as a 25% tariff on South Korean goods, adding fresh strain to the nation’s export-driven economy. In response, Acting President Han Duck-soo ordered emergency measures to support affected industries and urged negotiations with Washington to mitigate the impact. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok also pledged swift and tailored support to stabilize markets, promising to use all available tools. On the monetary policy front, March’s rise in inflation has sparked speculation that the Bank of Korea may pause its rate-cutting cycle in April, as it faces the challenge of balancing inflationary pressures with supporting economic growth.

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.3% to around 3,340 while the Shenzhen Component dropped 0.6% to 10,450 on Thursday, with mainland stocks snapping a two-day advance as US President Donald Trump imposed a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, intensifying the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. The White House clarified that the 34% tariff is in addition to the existing 20% levies, bringing total tariffs on Chinese goods to 54%. Other major economies also faced steep duties, including the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), alongside a 10% baseline tariff on all countries. Adding to market concerns, China conducted live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait this week, heightening geopolitical tensions in the region. High-growth technology, new energy and consumer stocks led the decline.

China's Caixin Services PMI rises to 51.9 in March vs. 51.6 expected.China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February, the latest data published by Caixin showed Thursday.

China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.9, above expectations (51.6) in March.China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.9, above expectations (51.6) in March

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell to 4.07%, the lowest since October as investors turned to save heaven assets after President Trump announced higher than expected tariffs on over 180 countries and territories. Trump administration set a 10% tariff on all imports and higher rates for countries with trade surpluses, including 34% for China, 20% for Europe, and 24% for Japan. Trump said the U.S. would impose tariffs at about half the rate charged by other countries, factoring in foreign tariffs, trade barriers, and other unfair practices.

RBA FSR: US tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending.In its Financial Stability Review (FSR) published on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the US “tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending.”

The Japanese yen appreciated past 148 per dollar on Thursday, hitting a three-week high as investors sought safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, escalating fears of a disruptive global trade war. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on China, raising total levies on the country to 54%. Other major economies facing hefty tariffs include the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), alongside a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries. Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic growth. While the BOJ is expected to raise interest rates further later this year, uncertainty over global trade and domestic economic conditions continues to weigh on the outlook.

The benchmark KOSPI dropped 1.5% to around 2,468 points on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in three months as global market jitters intensified following US President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. The measures include a 25% levy on South Korean goods, adding pressure to the country’s export-reliant economy. In response, Acting President Han Duck-soo ordered emergency measures to support affected industries, particularly automakers. Among index heavyweights, chips and auto stocks led the declines, including Samsung Electronics (-2%), SK Hynix (-2.5%), Hyundai Motor (-1.7%), and Kia Corp (-2.3%). Other notable losses were seen from LG Energy Solution (-4.3%), KB Financial (-3.2%), and Hyundai Mobis (-4.5%).

Canola increased to a 4-week high of 634.70 CAD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Canola gained 5.15%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.02%.

The Australian dollar hovered near $0.63 on Thursday, remaining largely unscathed after U.S. President Trump announced a sweeping new tariff regime on the country's trading partners. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated earlier that his government would not retaliate with reciprocal tariffs, emphasizing that the U.S. is not a major trading partner for Australia, as less than 5% of Australian goods exports go to the U.S. He also highlighted that ongoing efforts to diversify trade relations with Asian markets would help support local businesses. However, recent trade data showed that Australia’s exports declined in February while imports surged to a record high, signaling potential challenges for the trade balance. The widening trade gap raises concerns about external demand and domestic consumption trends, which could influence the Australian dollar and economic outlook in the coming months.

The S&P Global Singapore PMI increased to 52.7 in March 2025, up from 51.0 in February, marking the second consecutive month of expansion in the private sector. The latest figures also marked the highest since last November, as new business grew the most in four months. The rise in new work drove a slight increase in purchasing activity, though stocks of purchases continued to be depleted amidst delays. Meanwhile, employment declined for the fourth month in a row while backlogs of work increased at a faster pace. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated due to higher wages, raw material prices, transport costs, and property fees. As a result, output cost inflation accelerated as companies passed on some of the cost increases to clients. Finally, business sentiment improved for a second straight month.

The Au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI recorded 50 in March 2025, improving from the flash estimate of 49.5 but declining from February’s six-month high of 53.7. New order growth slowed to a four-month low, while new export business expanded at a weaker yet solid pace. Job creation eased to a three-month low but remained above the series average. Meanwhile, outstanding businesses experienced a renewed increase, although the accumulation rate was mild. Price indices revealed contrasting trends: input costs surged at their fastest rate in 19 months, yet pricing power weakened as efforts to attract and secure new orders led to a moderation in output charge inflation, reaching a five-month low. Looking ahead, business confidence declined for the second consecutive month. Optimism reached its lowest level since January 2021, with concerns centered on rising costs, labor shortages, and an aging population.

Brent crude oil futures sank nearly 3% below $73 per barrel on Thursday as markets turned risk-averse following higher-than-expected US tariffs. Although oil, gas, and refined product imports were exempt, President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on several countries, including a 10% baseline, 34% on China, and 20% on the EU, raised concerns about escalating trade disputes, which could dampen global energy demand. Adding to the bearish sentiment, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 6.2 million barrels last week, contrary to forecasts of a 2-million-barrel draw, driven by a surge in Canadian imports. Meanwhile, Russia imposed tighter export restrictions, suspending loadings from key ports. Investors are now looking to the OPEC+ meeting later this week for further insights into the global supply outlook.