Australian business confidence slides to -13 as oil shock and rate hikes bite, NAB says.Oil is the main pressure point: volatility tied to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the broader Iran conflict is lifting costs and denting sentiment, so any further energy spike would likely push confidence lower still. The survey highlights the RBA's dilemma, with businesses souring under higher funding costs even as the central bank, according to minutes released today, worries about domestic capacity pressures and rising business inflation expectations.

Japanese Yen strengthens despite softer PPI data.Japanese Yen strengthens despite softer PPI data

Just 32 countries now drive 95% of global growth as AI widens the gap, IMF warns.Oil is the pivot of the whole outlook: the IMF's base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027, so any slippage in that timeline or escalation toward its $130 scenario would hit growth and lift inflation, keeping central banks on a hawkish path. The higher oil price assumptions, at $96 a barrel this year and $87 next, effectively validate a prolonged risk premium in crude.

Dollar holds near 18-month high as geopolitical risks rise.The US dollar index remains at a steady 102.56, influenced by a holiday impacting some markets. Tensions escalate amid fresh assaults on energy facilities in the Middle East and Ukraine, enhancing the dollar's strength against major currencies.

United States Dollar Index eases from 18-month peak; slips below 102.50.United States Dollar Index eases from 18-month peak; slips below 102.50

British Pound gains on BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales data despite geopolitical tensions.British Pound gains on BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales data despite geopolitical tensions

RBI tightens rules on rupee non-deliverable contracts, widens 20% cash reserve requirement.The Reserve Bank of India on Monday tightened rules on rupee non-deliverable derivative contracts, limiting overseas clients to using them only for hedging, and widened a 20% cash reserve requirement to banks' own rupee currency hedges.

Canadian Dollar edges higher but remains close to April 2025 lows vs bullish USD.Canadian Dollar edges higher but remains close to April 2025 lows vs bullish USD

WTI holds gains above $92.00 on persistent Middle East supply risks.WTI holds gains above $92.00 on persistent Middle East supply risks

RBA Minutes: Case for rates to act promptly to keep inflation expectations anchored.RBA Minutes: Case for rates to act promptly to keep inflation expectations anchored

Japan wholesale inflation misses at 6.8% but stays high enough to keep BOJ hike alive.The miss trims some urgency from the hike narrative, but an annual pace near 7% and surging import costs leave the case for tightening intact, keeping Japanese yields and BOJ pricing sensitive to any hawkish signals. The weak yen is the key amplifier: with oil prices elevated by the Iran war, every leg lower in the currency raises the yen cost of energy and feeds back into pipeline inflation.

IMF's Georgieva calls AI a slow-moving tsunami (again) for jobs as graduates feel the first hit.Georgieva's framing of AI as both a demand and an investment shock lines up with this week's hawkish Fed commentary, which also pointed to AI-driven capital spending as a source of persistent inflation pressure, strengthening the case that the AI boom keeps rates higher for longer. Her estimate that AI investment could add half a point to a full point to growth in advanced Asian economies supports regional equities and currencies tied to the tech supply chain, such as Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below forecasts (5.5%) in September: Actual (5.3%).Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below forecasts (5.5%) in September: Actual (5.3%)

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 6.8%, below expectations (7.6%) in September.Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 6.8%, below expectations (7.6%) in September

The Japanese Yen slips on a Tokyo holiday.The Japanese Yen slips on a Tokyo holiday

UK retail sales beat forecasts but fuel bill jump of 17% shows squeeze on shoppers.The data offer little to change the picture for sterling or gilts on their own, but the mix carries a stagflationary edge: households are spending more on fuel while volumes in discretionary categories stay subdued. A near-17% jump in fuel spending shows how the oil and diesel shock is feeding into household budgets, which keeps upside risk on UK inflation even as underlying demand looks soft.

United Kingdom BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (0.7%) in September: Actual (1%).United Kingdom BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (0.7%) in September: Actual (1%)

The British Pound drifts back to its floor as Crude Oil lifts the Dollar.The British Pound drifts back to its floor as Crude Oil lifts the Dollar

Fed's Hammack sees thriving economy, backs further rate hikes.Fed's Hammack sees thriving economy, backs further rate hikes

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Key Support Holds as Bulls Eye $3.41.Natural gas holds support near its 200-day moving average as consolidation continues, with a breakout above $3.298 potentially opening a path toward $3.41.

Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, October 13, 2026 - RBA minutes due.Two releases this week will shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's next move: the minutes of its September policy meeting, due Tuesday, and Thursday's September labour force figures. Both come out at 11:30 am Sydney time, 00:30 GMT (8:30 pm ET the previous evening).

Chinese Yuan: Building upside momentum toward 6.6800 against US Dollar – UOB.Chinese Yuan: Building upside momentum toward 6.6800 against US Dollar – UOB

FX Today: US Dollar hits 17-month high, RBA minutes and Fed speaking, up next.FX Today: US Dollar hits 17-month high, RBA minutes and Fed speaking, up next

USD/JPY Short-Term Bullish But is a 160 Break Possible?.With hindsight perhaps the comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were ill-timed. The day he said that “I am the house, bet against me if you want” marked a higher-low in USD/JPY, and since then the pair has gained more than 500 pips.

South Korean Won: Uptrend seen resuming against US Dollar – Societe Generale.South Korean Won: Uptrend seen resuming against US Dollar – Societe Generale

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Rallies As Houthis Attack Saudi Airports.Oil markets rallied as the Houthis used drones and missiles to attack Saudi Arabia.

WTI hits two-week high Middle East tensions overshadow Russian diesel supplies.WTI hits two-week high Middle East tensions overshadow Russian diesel supplies

Chinese Yuan: Gradual appreciation with trade pressures – MUFG.Chinese Yuan: Gradual appreciation with trade pressures – MUFG

Fed's Hammack sees higher neutral rate, urges more policy restraint.Fed's Hammack sees higher neutral rate, urges more policy restraint

Singapore Dollar: Range bias holds near 1.2835 against US Dollar – UOB.Singapore Dollar: Range bias holds near 1.2835 against US Dollar – UOB